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Socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic: Macroeconomic impacts and policy issues in Mongolia

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  • Doojav, Gan-Ochir

Abstract

This paper examines macroeconomic impacts of Covid-19 and policy issues for recovery in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, by estimating a Bayesian structural vector autoregression on quarterly data. Our estimates suggest that China’s GDP and copper price shocks respectively account for three-fifths and one-fifths of the drop in real GDP in 2020Q1. The recovery observed for 2020Q2-2021Q1 is also primarily due to positive shocks to the variables. However, the ‘W-shaped’ recovery is now expected instead of ‘V-shaped’ due to the domestic outbreak of Covid-19, leading to domestic adverse shocks. The paper also provides policy recommendations for sustainable, inclusive, and resilient recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Doojav, Gan-Ochir, 2021. "Socio-economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic: Macroeconomic impacts and policy issues in Mongolia," MPRA Paper 111197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; demand and supply shocks; macroeconomic policy; Bayesian analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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