Social Development or Social Crisis: Modernization Theory Versus World-Systems Analysis

The study examines the contradictory claims of modernization theory and world-systems analysis regarding modern social change. While modernization theory argues a human development, world-systems analysis states a global crisis. The two theories are tested against empirical evidence from data of World Values Survey, World Bank, Freedom House, Transparency International, and GDELT Project. It was discovered that for the four analyzed waves during over fifteen years among all eight countries studied, statistically significant net social development was demonstrated only by China and by Turkey. No core country indicated a statistically significant social crisis. However, there are more substantial changes in particular dimensions. In economic dimension, all countries, but China (due to a rise in inequality), have evidence of social development. In cultural dimension, only two countries show a cumulative rise in emancipative values, while four other countries have a net rise of security values. In institutional dimension, United States have a relatively stable system, while for other countries it varies. Despite minor variations across the measured years, four countries enjoy a considerable cumulative increase in institutional freedoms and rights. Only two countries show a net inclination towards cooperative protests, as the majority of the countries gravitate towards conflict protest activities. Overall, it is evident that the studied countries are becoming more economically well-off, more free, but are increasingly inclined to protest more violently. Therefore, it is concluded that neither theory is universally sound, though both theories are right about cyclic change, and each theory is partially correct in the specified aspects.