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Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. A Comment on Hamilton (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018)

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  • Moura, Alban

Abstract

Hamilton (2018) argues that one should never use the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter to detrend economic time series and proposes an alternative approach. This comment reconsiders Hamilton's case against the HP filter, emphasizing two simple points. First, in the empirical example Hamilton considers, the HP and Hamilton filters yield cyclical estimates with very similar dynamic properties, questioning the notion that one decomposition outperforms the other. Second, there is a mechanical lag in the Hamilton trend, which might cast doubt on the economic plausibility of the trend-cycle decomposition. It follows that the Hamilton filter might not constitute a systematically better alternative to the HP filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Moura, Alban, 2024. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. A Comment on Hamilton (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018)," Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics (JCRE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(2024-1), pages 1-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:jcreco:295067
    DOI: 10.18718/81781.31
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    Keywords

    HP Filter; Hamilton Filter; Business Cycles; Detrending; Filtering; Comment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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