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Scenarios for Coal-Exit in Germany—A Model-Based Analysis and Implications in the European Context

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  • Kittel, Martin
  • Goeke, Leonard
  • Kemfert, Claudia
  • Oei, Pao-Yu
  • Hirschhausen, Christian R. von

Abstract

The political discussion to reduce the carbon footprint of Germany’s electricity sector, focusing on coal, is intensifying. In this paper, we develop scenarios for phasing out lignite and hard coal power plants in Germany prior to the end of their technical lifespan (“coal-exit”). Our analysis bases upon two coal-exit instruments, the retirement of coal generation capacities and the limiting of how much aged coal power plants with high carbon intensity can be used within a year. Results show that phasing out coal in Germany would have a considerable impact on Central European electricity markets, in terms of decarbonization efforts and electricity trade. An ambitious coal-exit could avert foreseeable shortcomings in Germany’s climate performance in the short-run and release additional carbon savings, thus compensating for potential shortfalls in other energy-intensive sectors by 2030. Limited emissions in the range of 27% would be shifted to neighboring countries. However, tremendous positive climate effects on European scale would result, because Germany’s annual emission savings in 2030 would be substantial. Totaling 85 million tons of CO2, the overall net reduction is equivalent to 17.5% of total European emissions in 2030 without retirements of coal-firing power plants prior to the end of their technical lifespan.

Suggested Citation

  • Kittel, Martin & Goeke, Leonard & Kemfert, Claudia & Oei, Pao-Yu & Hirschhausen, Christian R. von, 2020. "Scenarios for Coal-Exit in Germany—A Model-Based Analysis and Implications in the European Context," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(8).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:222434
    DOI: 10.3390/en13082041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Kittel & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2021. "Renewable Energy Targets and Unintended Storage Cycling: Implications for Energy Modeling," Papers 2107.13380, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Katarzyna Chudy-Laskowska & Tomasz Pisula, 2022. "An Analysis of the Use of Energy from Conventional Fossil Fuels and Green Renewable Energy in the Context of the European Union’s Planned Energy Transformation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Grzegorz Lew & Beata Sadowska & Katarzyna Chudy-Laskowska & Grzegorz Zimon & Magdalena Wójcik-Jurkiewicz, 2021. "Influence of Photovoltaic Development on Decarbonization of Power Generation—Example of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Hugo Morais & Tiago Pinto & Zita Vale, 2020. "Adjacent Markets Influence Over Electricity Trading—Iberian Benchmark Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy transition; Germany; Energiewende; Electricity modeling; Coal phase-out; Energy policy; Climate policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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