IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v6y2024i1ne174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Kunc

Abstract

System dynamics (SD) is a methodology to generate qualitative and quantitative models. SD has two main concepts that are highly suitable to use with scenarios: feedback processes that define the structure of sociotechnical systems and accumulation processes that are responsible for the dynamic behavior of systems over time. This article discusses a framework that integrates methodologically scenarios and SD. The integration can take multiple forms depending on the use of SD for creating or supporting scenarios. The framework is illustrated with multiple examples. Since SDs' practice uses processes similar to scenario practice, mutual enrichment between the communities can be highly successful.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Kunc, 2024. "Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:6:y:2024:i:1:n:e174
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.174
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ffo2.174?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claralucia Prates Machado & Maria Isabel Wolf Morandi & Miguel Sellitto, 2019. "System Dynamics and Learning Scenarios for Process Improvement and Regional Resilience: A Study in The Footwear Industry of Southern Brazil," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 663-686, December.
    2. K Warren & P Langley, 1999. "The effective communication of system dynamics to improve insight and learning in management education," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(4), pages 396-404, April.
    3. J Pollack, 2009. "Multimethodology in series and parallel: strategic planning using hard and soft OR," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(2), pages 156-167, February.
    4. Carlisle, Sheena & Johansen, Aleksander & Kunc, Martin, 2016. "Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 81-95.
    5. Arbrie Jashari & Victor Tiberius & Marina Dabić, 2022. "Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.
    6. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
    7. Nicholas J. Rowland & Matthew J. Spaniol, 2021. "On inquiry in futures and foresight science," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), March.
    8. Maria Cleofe Giorgino & Federico Barnabè & Martin Kunc, 2020. "Integrating qualitative system dynamics with accounting practices: The case of integrated reporting and resource mapping," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 97-118, January.
    9. M Kunc & R Kazakov, 2013. "Competitive dynamics in pharmaceutical markets: A case study in the chronic cardiac disease market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 64(12), pages 1790-1799, December.
    10. Wright, George & Cairns, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Teaching scenario planning: Lessons from practice in academe and business," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 323-335, April.
    11. Mohammadreza Zolfagharian & A. Georges L. Romme & Bob Walrave, 2018. "Why, when, and how to combine system dynamics with other methods: Towards an evidence-based framework," Journal of Simulation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 98-114, April.
    12. Torres, Juan Pablo & Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances, 2017. "Supporting strategy using system dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1081-1094.
    13. M H Kunc & J D W Morecroft, 2009. "Resource-based strategies and problem structuring: using resource maps to manage resource systems," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(2), pages 191-199, February.
    14. Langley, Paul A. & Morecroft, John D. W., 2004. "Performance and learning in a simulation of oil industry dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(3), pages 715-732, June.
    15. Franco, L. Alberto & Meadows, Maureen & Armstrong, Steven J., 2013. "Exploring individual differences in scenario planning workshops: A cognitive style framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 723-734.
    16. Martin Kunc & Michael J. Mortenson & Richard Vidgen, 2018. "A computational literature review of the field of System Dynamics from 1974 to 2017," Journal of Simulation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 115-127, April.
    17. Rossen Kazakov & Martin Kunc, 2016. "Foreseeing the Dynamics of Strategy: An Anticipatory Systems Perspective," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-25, February.
    18. Willis, Graham & Cave, Siôn & Kunc, Martin, 2018. "Strategic workforce planning in healthcare: A multi-methodology approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 250-263.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Torres, Juan Pablo & Barrera, Jose Ignacio & Kunc, Martin & Charters, Steve, 2021. "The dynamics of wine tourism adoption in Chile," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 474-485.
    2. Federico Barnabè & Maria Cleofe Giorgino & Martin Kunc, 2019. "Visualizing and managing value creation through integrated reporting practices: a dynamic resource-based perspective," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 23(2), pages 537-575, June.
    3. Kunc, Martin & O'Brien, Frances A., 2017. "Exploring the development of a methodology for scenario use: Combining scenario and resource mapping approaches," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 150-159.
    4. Maria Cleofe Giorgino & Federico Barnabè & Martin Kunc, 2020. "Integrating qualitative system dynamics with accounting practices: The case of integrated reporting and resource mapping," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 97-118, January.
    5. Willis, Graham & Cave, Siôn & Kunc, Martin, 2018. "Strategic workforce planning in healthcare: A multi-methodology approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 250-263.
    6. Garces, Estefany & Franco, Carlos J. & Tomei, Julia & Dyner, Isaac, 2023. "Sustainable electricity supply for small off-grid communities in Colombia: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    7. John J. Oliver, 2023. "Scenario planning: Reflecting on cases of actionable knowledge," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    8. Martin Kunc, 2021. "A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    9. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    10. Forliano, Canio & Ferraris, Alberto & Bivona, Enzo & Couturier, Jerome, 2022. "Pouring new wine into old bottles: A dynamic perspective of the interplay among environmental dynamism, capabilities development, and performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 448-463.
    11. Divya Mishra & Amita Mital & Samir K. Srivastava, 2023. "Role of international strategic alliances in internationalization of business group affiliated firms—A system dynamics approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 552-572, May.
    12. Pasaoglu, Güzay, 2011. "Using the decentralized and liberalized electricity market microworld (LEMM) as an educational tool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 187-199, January.
    13. Megan M. Crawford & Eoin Plant‐O'Toole, 2023. "A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    14. Jacqueline Y. Sánchez-García & Juan E. Núñez-Ríos & Manuel Soto-Pérez & Pedro Pablo Cardoso-Castro & Alejandro Rodríguez-Magaña, 2020. "A Systems Science Approach to Inter-Organisational Complementarity in Tourism SMEs," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Robinson, Stewart & Kotiadis, Kathy, 2016. "Can involving clients in simulation studies help them solve their future problems? A transfer of learning experimentAuthor-Name: Monks, Thomas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 919-930.
    16. Cosenz, Federico & Bivona, Enzo, 2021. "Fostering growth patterns of SMEs through business model innovation. A tailored dynamic business modelling approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 658-669.
    17. Enzo Bivona & Federico Cosenz, 2021. "Designing a Multi‐Sided Platform business model assessment framework: a Dynamic Performance Management perspective," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 93-107, January.
    18. Förster, Bernadette & von der Gracht, Heiko, 2014. "Assessing Delphi panel composition for strategic foresight — A comparison of panels based on company-internal and external participants," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 215-229.
    19. Federico Cosenz & Vinicius Picanço Rodrigues & Francesco Rosati, 2020. "Dynamic business modeling for sustainability: Exploring a system dynamics perspective to develop sustainable business models," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 651-664, February.
    20. Steinmann, Patrick & Auping, Willem L. & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2020. "Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:6:y:2024:i:1:n:e174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.