IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/fufsci/v3y2021i2ne70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Still fooled by randomness, twenty years later?

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew J. Spaniol
  • Matthew J. Evans
  • Kristian Tranekær
  • Nicholas J. Rowland
  • Nick P. Atkinson

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew J. Spaniol & Matthew J. Evans & Kristian Tranekær & Nicholas J. Rowland & Nick P. Atkinson, 2021. "Still fooled by randomness, twenty years later?," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:3:y:2021:i:2:n:e70
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.70
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ffo2.70?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daria A. Pavlova & Yulia V. Milshina & Konstantin O. Vishnevskiy & Ozcan Saritas, 2018. "The Role Of Wild Cards Analysis In Foresight Studies: The Case Of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 89/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2020. "How historical analysis can enrich scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    3. Effie Amanatidou & Maurits Butter & Vicente Carabias & Totti Könnölä & Miriam Leis & Ozcan Saritas & Petra Schaper-Rinkel & Victor van Rij, 2012. "On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 208-221, March.
    4. Anirvan Banerji, 2006. "Book Review of Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. By Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2204)," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 4, pages 57-59, June.
    5. Sally Gainsbury, 2010. "Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 291-293, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2021. "Macro worlds and micro predictions: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    2. Gill Ringland, 2013. "Future as Unexplored Domain: Ñonnecting Foresight to the Making Strategic Decisions," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 60-69.
    3. Beatriz Barros & Ana Fernández-Zubieta & Raul Fidalgo-Merino & Francisco Triguero, 2018. "Scientific knowledge percolation process and social impact: A case study on the biotechnology and microbiology perceptions on Twitter," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(6), pages 804-814.
    4. Bernardino Romano & Lorena Fiorini & Alessandro Marucci, 2019. "Italy without Urban ‘Sprinkling’. A Uchronia for a Country that Needs a Retrofit of Its Urban and Landscape Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Kim, Hyunuk & Ahn, Sang-Jin & Jung, Woo-Sung, 2019. "Horizon scanning in policy research database with a probabilistic topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 588-594.
    6. Trumbo, Jennifer L. & Tonn, Bruce E., 2016. "Biofuels: A sustainable choice for the United States' energy future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 147-161.
    7. Amber Geurts & Ralph Gutknecht & Philine Warnke & Arjen Goetheer & Elna Schirrmeister & Babette Bakker & Svetlana Meissner, 2022. "New perspectives for data‐supported foresight: The hybrid AI‐expert approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    8. Flick, Catherine & Zamani, Efpraxia D. & Stahl, Bernd Carsten & Brem, Alexander, 2020. "The future of ICT for health and ageing: Unveiling ethical and social issues through horizon scanning foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. Julia V. Ponomareva & Anna V. Sokolova, 2015. "The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods," HSE Working papers WP BRP 46/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    10. Pascale Lehoux & Hudson Pacifico Silva & Renata Pozelli Sabio & Federico Roncarolo, 2018. "The Unexplored Contribution of Responsible Innovation in Health to Sustainable Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Johann Peter Murmann, 2020. "Historical methods in the social sciences: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    12. Roger C. Brackin & Michael J. Jackson & Andrew Leyshon & Jeremy G. Morley & Sarah Jewitt, 2022. "Generating Indicators of Disruptive Innovation Using Big Data," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, November.
    13. Heiko A. von der Gracht, 2022. "What's luck got to do with it? Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    14. Zsuzsanna Géring & Gábor Király & Réka Tamássy, 2021. "Are you a newcomer to horizon scanning? A few decision points and methodological reflections on the process," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    15. Kayser, Victoria & Blind, Knut, 2017. "Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The contribution of text mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 208-215.
    16. Alexander B. Kinney, 2021. "Craft Weed: Family farming and the future of the marijuana industry. Ryan Stoa. 2018. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 256 pages. ISBN: 9780262038867 (hrbk $27.95)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    17. Nicholas Glunt & Jazzmine McCauley & Nicholas J. Rowland & Shanette Wahor & Alexander B. Kinney & Nathan E. Kruis, 2023. "The theory of narrative thought, by Lee Roy Beach and James A. Wise. UK: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2022. x+195 pp. ISBN: 1527581624 (hardback); £64.99," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    18. Philip E. Tetlock, 2020. "Can we accelerate learning from history? South Africa then and now: Commentary on Schoemaker 2020," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    19. Matti Minkkinen, 2021. "Rigor and diversity in the futures field: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    20. Moro, Alberto & Boelman, Elisa & Joanny, Geraldine & Garcia, Juan Lopez, 2018. "A bibliometric-based technique to identify emerging photovoltaic technologies in a comparative assessment with expert review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 407-416.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:3:y:2021:i:2:n:e70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2573-5152 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.