IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v60y2023i1p157-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ambivalent allies: How inconsistent foreign support dooms new democracies

Author

Listed:
  • Killian Clarke

    (Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University)

Abstract

Since the Cold War ended, foreign support has been identified as an important factor in facilitating democratization. However, in certain parts of the world Western enthusiasm for democratization has been highly uneven, particularly when regime change has been achieved through nonviolent revolutionary mobilization. This article introduces the concept of ‘ambivalent allies’ and argues that ambivalence may be highly detrimental to new democracies emerging from nonviolent resistance. Ambivalent allies signal public support for a democratic transition while remaining quietly skeptical about the desirability or viability of the new regime. These misleading signals cause democratic leaders to deprioritize the maintenance of their diverse coalitions, choosing instead an exclusivist approach that alienates their domestic partners. They therefore end up doubly exposed to counterrevolutionary threats, lacking both a broad domestic support base and strong foreign backers. The article illustrates this argument through an examination of Egypt’s 2011 revolution and 2013 coup, drawing on approximately 100 interviews with Egyptian political leaders and foreign diplomats. It shows that the USA’s ambivalence toward the transition contributed to the coup by giving the elected government headed by Mohamed Morsi a false impression that it had strong foreign backing, and that it could afford to marginalize the secularist wing of the original revolutionary coalition. Egypt’s experience is then compared to two cases in which new governments survived counterrevolutionary threats: Burkina Faso in 2014 and Madagascar in 2009. The study contributes to our understanding of how international support may facilitate or undermine democratic consolidation following nonviolent revolutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Killian Clarke, 2023. "Ambivalent allies: How inconsistent foreign support dooms new democracies," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 157-171, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:60:y:2023:i:1:p:157-171
    DOI: 10.1177/00223433221137612
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433221137612
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00223433221137612?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Wright, 2009. "How Foreign Aid Can Foster Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 552-571, July.
    2. Beissinger, Mark R., 2013. "The Semblance of Democratic Revolution: Coalitions in Ukraine's Orange Revolution," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 574-592, August.
    3. Dunning, Thad, 2004. "Conditioning the Effects of Aid: Cold War Politics, Donor Credibility, and Democracy in Africa," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 409-423, April.
    4. Lila Chouli, 2015. "The popular uprising in Burkina Faso and the Transition," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(144), pages 325-333, June.
    5. Jesse Dillon Savage, 2017. "Military Size and the Effectiveness of Democracy Assistance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(4), pages 839-868, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erica Chenoweth & Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, 2023. "Guest Editors’ introduction: Nonviolent resistance and its discontents," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(1), pages 3-8, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angelika J. Budjan & Andreas Fuchs, 2021. "Democracy and Aid Donorship," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 217-238, November.
    2. Simone Dietrich & Joseph Wright, 2012. "Foreign Aid and Democratic Development in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-020, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Altincekic, Ceren & Bearce, David H., 2014. "Why there Should be No Political Foreign Aid Curse," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 18-32.
    4. Gunitsky, Seva, 2014. "From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 561-597, July.
    5. Sonja Grimm & Okka Lou Mathis, 2018. "Democratization via aid? The European Union’s democracy promotion in the Western Balkans 1994–2010," European Union Politics, , vol. 19(1), pages 163-184, March.
    6. Burcu Savun & Daniel C. Tirone, 2018. "Foreign Aid as a Counterterrorism Tool," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(8), pages 1607-1635, September.
    7. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2019. "Foreign in influence and domestic policy: A survey," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1928, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Yener Altunbas & John Thornton, 2014. "The (small) blessing of foreign aid: further evidence on aid's impact on democracy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(32), pages 3922-3930, November.
    9. Raul Caruso & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2020. "Regional diffusion of military regimes in sub‐Saharan Africa," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(1), pages 225-244, February.
    10. Oeindrila Dube & Suresh Naidu, 2010. "Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia," Working Papers 197, Center for Global Development.
    11. Bermeo, Sarah Blodgett, 2011. "Foreign Aid and Regime Change: A Role for Donor Intent," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 2021-2031.
    12. Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2016. "Does foreign aid harm political institutions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 266-281.
    13. Dutta, Nabamita & Williamson, Claudia R., 2016. "Aiding economic freedom: Exploring the role of political institutions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(S), pages 24-38.
    14. Aili Mari Tripp, 2012. "Donor Assistance and Political Reform in Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-037, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Bag, Parimal Kanti & Roy Chowdhury, Prabal, 2016. "Gradualism in aid and reforms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 108-123.
    16. Gibson, Clark C. & Hoffman, Barak D. & Jablonski, Ryan S., 2015. "Did Aid Promote Democracy in Africa? The Role of Technical Assistance in Africa’s Transitions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 323-335.
    17. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2021. "Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 426-487, June.
    18. Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2015. "Foreign Aid Responses to Political Liberalization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 46-61.
    19. Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2015. "Aid and institutions in transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 55-70.
    20. Zohid Askarov & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2013. "Does aid improve democracy and governance? A meta-regression analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 601-628, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:60:y:2023:i:1:p:157-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.prio.no/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.