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Expectations and the Neutrality of Interest Rates

Author

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  • John Cochrane

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

Our central banks set interest rates, and do not even pretend to control money supplies. How do interest rates affect inflation? We finally have a complete economic theory of inflation under interest rate targets and unconstrained liquidity. Its long-run properties mirror those of monetary theory: Inflation can be stable and determinate under interest rate targets, including a peg, analogous to a k-percent rule. Uncomfortably, stability means that higher interest rates eventually raise inflation, just as higher money growth eventually raises inflation. Sticky prices generate some short-run non-neutrality: Higher nominal interest rates can raise real rates and lower output. A model in which higher nominal interest rates temporarily lower inflation, without a change in fiscal policy, is a harder task. I exhibit one such model, but it paints a more limited picture than standard beliefs. Generically, without a change in fiscal policy, monetary policy can only move inflation from one time to another. The last decade has provided a near-ideal set of natural experiments to distinguish the principal theories of inflation. Inflation did not show spirals or indeterminacies at the long zero bound. The large monetary-fiscal expansion of the covid era produced a temporary spurt of inflation. The same money unleashed in quantitative easing had no such effect. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • John Cochrane, 2024. "Expectations and the Neutrality of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 194-223, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:23-168
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.04.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Esteban Posada, 2023. "Inflation targeting strategy and its credibility," Papers 2301.11207, arXiv.org.
    2. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2023. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the United States: The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 961-977, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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