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Impact of Climate Variables Change on the Yield of Wheat and Rice Crops in Iran (Application of Stochastic Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation)

Author

Listed:
  • Akram Javadi

    (University of Tabriz)

  • Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh

    (University of Tabriz)

  • Maria Sassi

    (University of Pavia)

  • Ozra Javanbakht

    (Urmia University)

  • Boballah Hayati

    (University of Tabriz)

Abstract

This study aims to predict the yield of two strategic crops in Iran; wheat and rice, under climate scenarios that indicate probable changes in climate variables. It implemented by a stochastic model based on the Monte Carlo method. This model were estimated based on historical data from 1988 to 2019 for precipitation and temperature provided possible changes in the pattern of and their probability of occurrence. The results show that rain-fed wheat, irrigated wheat and rice yields decrease by 42%, 29% and 21% respectively in the average scenario. Therefore, policy makers should try to make the right decisions to increase the production of the country's strategic crops. R&D management to introduce drought-tolerant varieties, use of modern irrigation systems and use of low-volume irrigation methods are some of the proposed solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Akram Javadi & Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh & Maria Sassi & Ozra Javanbakht & Boballah Hayati, 2024. "Impact of Climate Variables Change on the Yield of Wheat and Rice Crops in Iran (Application of Stochastic Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation)," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 983-1000, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:63:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-023-10389-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10389-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    4. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle & Lijuan Zhang, 2009. "The impact of climate change on China's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(3), pages 323-337, May.
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