Covid-19 Vaccines As a Condition of Employment: Impact on Uptake, Staffing, and Mortality in Elderly Care Homes

Laws mandating vaccination against Covid-19 as a condition of employment in health and care sectors were commonplace during the pandemic. Using weekly data at the local authority level, we examine the impact of the vaccine mandate for elderly care homes in England on vaccine take-up, staffing levels, and mortality. Our identification strategy involves (1) comparing take-up and staffing in English elderly care homes relative to other social care settings unaffected by the mandate; (2) comparing take-up and staffing in English elderly care homes relative to those in Wales where the mandate also did not apply; and (3) comparing Covid-19 mortality among English elderly care home residents relative to mortality in domestic homes in England and to care homes in Wales. Our results suggest that the mandate substantially decreased the proportion of care home workers who remained unvaccinated (equivalent to between 28,000 and 41,000 fewer unvaccinated staff), but this came at the cost of a reduction in staffing levels of between 3% and 4% (equivalent to 14,000 to 18,000 staff). We observe this effect most strongly in areas of low unemployment. Our results do not provide evidence that the vaccine mandate was successful in its primary aim of reducing care home deaths. Relatively wide confidence intervals mean inferences regarding mortality are more uncertain than for vaccination uptake and staffing.