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Climate Change Risks for the Mediterranean Agri-Food Sector: The Case of Greece

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Georgopoulou

    (Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, Greece)

  • Nikos Gakis

    (FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, GR-11471 Athens, Greece)

  • Dimitris Kapetanakis

    (FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, GR-11471 Athens, Greece)

  • Dimitris Voloudakis

    (RethinkAg S.P., Eirinis 81, Agia Paraskevi, GR-15341 Attiki, Greece)

  • Maria Markaki

    (Department of Management Science & Technology, Hellenic Mediterranean University, P.O. Box 128, GR-72100 Agios Nikolaos Crete, Greece)

  • Yannis Sarafidis

    (Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, Greece)

  • Dimitris P. Lalas

    (FACE3TS S.A., Agiou Isidorou 1, GR-11471 Athens, Greece)

  • George P. Laliotis

    (Laboratory of Animal Breeding & Husbandry, Department of Animal Science, School of Animal Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 75, Iera Odos Str., GR-11855 Athens, Greece)

  • Konstantina Akamati

    (Laboratory of Animal Breeding & Husbandry, Department of Animal Science, School of Animal Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 75, Iera Odos Str., GR-11855 Athens, Greece)

  • Iosif Bizelis

    (Laboratory of Animal Breeding & Husbandry, Department of Animal Science, School of Animal Sciences, Agricultural University of Athens, 75, Iera Odos Str., GR-11855 Athens, Greece)

  • Markos Daskalakis

    (RethinkAg S.P., Eirinis 81, Agia Paraskevi, GR-15341 Attiki, Greece)

  • Sevastianos Mirasgedis

    (Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, I. Metaxa & Vas. Pavlou, GR-15236 Palea Penteli, Greece)

  • Iordanis Tzamtzis

    (Accel Ltd., Chrisostomou Smirnis 27, Imittos, GR-17237 Athens, Greece)

Abstract

The study assesses the direct effects of climate change by 2060, including extreme events, on the productivity of regional crop farming and livestock in Greece, and the broader socio-economic effects on the agri-food and other sectors. Different approaches (i.e., agronomic models, statistical regression models, and equations linking thermal stress to livestock output) were combined to estimate the effects on productivity from changes in the average values of climatic parameters, and subsequently the direct economic effects from this long-term climate change. Recorded damages from extreme events together with climatic thresholds per event and crop were combined to estimate the direct economic effects of these extremes. The broader socio-economic effects were then estimated through input–output analysis. Under average levels of future extreme events, the total direct economic losses for Greek agriculture due to climate change will be significant, from EUR 437 million/year to EUR 1 billion/year. These losses approximately double when indirect effects on other sectors using agricultural products as inputs (e.g., food and beverage, hotels, and restaurants) are considered, and escalate further under a tenfold impact of extreme events. Losses in the GDP and employment are moderate at the national level, but significant in regions where the contribution of agriculture is high.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Georgopoulou & Nikos Gakis & Dimitris Kapetanakis & Dimitris Voloudakis & Maria Markaki & Yannis Sarafidis & Dimitris P. Lalas & George P. Laliotis & Konstantina Akamati & Iosif Bizelis & Markos, 2024. "Climate Change Risks for the Mediterranean Agri-Food Sector: The Case of Greece," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-31, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:14:y:2024:i:5:p:770-:d:1396226
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Voloudakis, Dimitrios & Karamanos, Andreas & Economou, Garifalia & Kalivas, Dionissios & Vahamidis, Petros & Kotoulas, Vasilios & Kapsomenakis, John & Zerefos, Christos, 2015. "Prediction of climate change impacts on cotton yields in Greece under eight climatic models using the AquaCrop crop simulation model and discriminant function analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 116-128.
    2. Jordan Hristov & Andrea Toreti & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Dentener Frank & Thomas Fellmann & Christian Elleby & Andrej Ceglar & Davide Fumagalli & Stefan Niemeyer & Iacopo Cerrani & Lorenzo Panarello, 2020. "Analysis of climate change impacts on EU agriculture by 2050: JRC PESETA IV project – Task 3," JRC Research Reports JRC119632, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Funes, I. & Savé, R. & de Herralde, F. & Biel, C. & Pla, E. & Pascual, D. & Zabalza, J. & Cantos, G. & Borràs, G. & Vayreda, J. & Aranda, X., 2021. "Modeling impacts of climate change on the water needs and growing cycle of crops in three Mediterranean basins," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
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