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Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Pawel Krolikowski
  • Kurt Graden Lunsford
  • Meifeng dup Yang

Abstract

We use advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act as an indicator of current and imminent labor market conditions. We have constructed a database of establishment-level notices starting in 1990 by scraping state government websites, contacting state officials, and retrieving historical data. We find evidence that these notices, aggregated to the national level, lead other prominent labor market indicators, such as initial unemployment insurance claims, the change in the unemployment rate, and changes in private employment. The lead relationship seems strongest at one month with economically meaningful magnitudes. Most recently, WARN data suggest a slight increase in labor market slack.

Suggested Citation

  • Pawel Krolikowski & Kurt Graden Lunsford & Meifeng dup Yang, 2019. "Using Advance Layoff Notices as a Labor Market Indicator," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2019(21), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:86651
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-201921
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. H. Shumway & D. S. Stoffer, 1982. "An Approach To Time Series Smoothing And Forecasting Using The Em Algorithm," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 253-264, July.
    2. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    1. Pawel M. Krolikowski & Kurt G. Lunsford, 2024. "Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 462-480, April.

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