The direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on exports across the euro area

This section examines the direct impact of the lockdown measures to contain the spread of the COVID19 virus on the exports of goods and services of the euro area Member States. A first look at the data suggests that the initial drop in aggregate exports from the euro area to the rest of the world was sharper during the pandemic than during the global financial crisis, but that it also showed a faster rebound. Furthermore, the exports of services were harder hit than the exports of goods especially at the onset of the crisis. This is in strong contrast with the global financial crisis, when the share of services in total exports increased strongly on impact. Focusing on the lockdown measures affecting social interactions, business operations, people crossing borders and logistical support infrastructure, the econometric analysis suggests that the lockdown measures had a significant direct negative impact on exports, but with their impact on goods exports on average only about two thirds of the impact on services exports. This analysis also suggests that the impact of the lockdown measures weakened over time suggesting that economic agents learned with each new wave of infections. For the export of services, the strongest negative direct impact of the lockdown measures is recorded for Spain and Portugal, followed by Italy and Greece, which are all Member States with an important tourism sector. For the exports of goods, the strongest negative impact is recorded for Italy, Portugal, France and Spain. The estimates also suggest that vaccination had a significant positive impact on the recovery of the export of services.