Copper-to-gold ratio as a leading indicator for the 10-Year Treasury yield

Preliminary univariate and multivariate regressions, visual inspections, various relative entropy probes, and complementary Pearson correlation tests and Welch’s t-tests all suggest that the copper-to-gold ratio often embeds rather short-termed (up to a few days) yet credible information about the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. This phenomenon has been more noticeable in recent years and in times where no major economic shocks have developed. False signals in this leading indicator, however, are not uncommon, and they emerge mostly around global macroeconomic tremors. As declared by different market participants, in the absence of macroeconomic turbulences, the copper-to-gold ratio tends to be tightly coordinated (up to a few day lags) with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and as such, it can serve as a momentary leading indicator for the latter, although not always and not with complete precision.