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Did the structure of trade and foreign debt affect reserve currency composition? Evidence from interwar Japan

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  • HATASE, MARIKO
  • OHNUKI, MARI

Abstract

Historical experience is often invoked in the modern debate on competition among reserve currencies, yet little is known about quantitative aspects or institutional features of reserve management. By drawing on newly obtained data on foreign exchange reserves, especially those broken down by currency, this article explores the competition between the British pound sterling and the US dollar for the status of leading reserve currency in Japan during the interwar period. We find that competition between these two currencies remained undecided and that their relative status alternated repeatedly. Historical materials and the results of econometric analysis suggest that the key factors explaining a choice of reserve currencies are trade volumes and the currency denomination of external debt. The latter criteria supported maintaining sterling's status as a reserve currency for the interwar period, reflecting its considerable share in debt service generated through issues that had been launched when London was the sole international market. The stability of potential reserve currencies is shown to be crucial as well. We also find evidence of institutional factors, which include taxation, foreign exchange controls and restrictions on financial activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatase, Mariko & Ohnuki, Mari, 2009. "Did the structure of trade and foreign debt affect reserve currency composition? Evidence from interwar Japan," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 319-347, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:ereveh:v:13:y:2009:i:03:p:319-347_99
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert N McCauley & Tracy Chan, 2014. "Currency movements drive reserve composition," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    2. Mateane, Lebogang, 2023. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 402-418.
    3. John Singleton & Catherine R. Schenk, 2015. "The shift from sterling to the dollar, 1965–76: evidence from Australia and New Zealand," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(4), pages 1154-1176, November.
    4. Ito, Hiroyuki & McCauley, Robert N. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Currency composition of reserves, trade invoicing and currency movements," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 16-29.
    5. Mateane, Lebogang, 2020. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," EconStor Preprints 227484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Mariko Hatase & Mototsugu Shintani & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2013. "Great earthquakes, exchange rate volatility and government interventions," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 13-00007, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.

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