IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/wtowps/ersd201008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Escaith, Hubert
  • Lindenberg, Nannette
  • Miroudot, Sébastien

Abstract

The paper investigates the role of global supply chains in explaining the trade collapse of 2008-2009 and the long-term variations observed in trade elasticity. Building on the empirical results obtained from a subset of input-output matrices and the exploratory analysis of a large and diversified sample of countries, a formal model is specified to measure the respective short-term and long-term dynamics of trade elasticity. The model is then used to formally probe the role of vertical integration in explaining changes in trade elasticity. Aggregated results on long-term trade elasticity tend to support the hypothesis that world economy has undertaken in the late 1980s a traverse between two underlying economic models. During this transition, the expansion of international supply chains determined an apparent increase in trade elasticity. Two supply chains related effects (the composition and the bullwhip effects) explain also the overshooting of trade elasticity that occurred during the 2008-2009 trade collapse. But vertical specialization is unable to explain the heterogeneity observed on a country and sectoral level, indicating that other contributive factors may also have been at work to explain the diversity of the observed results.

Suggested Citation

  • Escaith, Hubert & Lindenberg, Nannette & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2010. "International supply chains and trade elasticity in times of global crisis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201008
    DOI: 10.30875/e25c5eeb-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57585/1/639995381.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30875/e25c5eeb-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agnese, Pablo & Joan Enric, Ricart, 2009. "Offshoring: Facts and numbers at the country level," MPRA Paper 16503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Philipp Harms & Oliver Lorz & Dieter Urban, 2012. "Offshoring along the production chain," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 93-106, February.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    4. Guillaume Daudin & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2011. "Who produces for whom in the world economy?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1403-1437, November.
    5. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2005. "Outsourcing in a Global Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 135-159.
    6. Chen, Yongmin & Ishikawa, Jota & Yu, Zhihao, 2004. "Trade liberalization and strategic outsourcing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 419-436, July.
    7. Kristien Coucke & Leo Sleuwaegen, 2008. "Offshoring as a survival strategy: evidence from manufacturing firms in Belgium," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 39(8), pages 1261-1277, December.
    8. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Castéras, 2009. "Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains," Working Papers 2009-15, CEPII research center.
    9. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    10. Mitra, Devashish & Ranjan, Priya, 2008. "Temporary shocks and offshoring: The role of external economies and firm heterogeneity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 76-84, August.
    11. Escaith, Hubert & Gonguet, Fabien, 2009. "International trade and real transmission channels of financial shocks in globalized production networks," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2009-06, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    12. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2017. "Offshoring and Volatility: Evidence from Mexico’s Maquiladora Industry," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 2, pages 31-44, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h4dj9499g is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
    16. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "Inventories, Lumpy Trade, and Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2304-2339, December.
    17. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond J. Mataloni & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2005. "Vertical Production Networks in Multinational Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 664-678, November.
    18. Pol Antras & Elhanan Helpman, 2004. "Global Sourcing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 552-580, June.
    19. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Swagel, Phillip, 2006. "The politics and economics of offshore outsourcing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 1027-1056, July.
    20. Inomata, Satoshi, 2008. "A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process: An International Input-Output Approach," IDE Discussion Papers 175, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    21. Ingo Borchert & Aaditya Mattoo, 2009. "The crisis-resilience of services trade," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(13), pages 2115-2136, August.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h4dj9499g is not listed on IDEAS
    23. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Stoeckel, Andrew, 2009. "The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5134, The World Bank.
    24. Sébastien Miroudot & Alexandros Ragoussis, 2009. "Vertical Trade, Trade Costs and FDI," OECD Trade Policy Papers 89, OECD Publishing.
    25. Oosterhaven, Jan & Stelder, Dirk & Inomata, Satoshi, 2007. "Evaluation of Non-Survey International IO Construction Methods with the Asian-Pacific Input-Output Table," IDE Discussion Papers 114, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    26. Freund, Caroline, 2009. "The trade response to global downturns : historical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5015, The World Bank.
    27. Michael Ostrovsky, 2008. "Stability in Supply Chain Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 897-923, June.
    28. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    29. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2002. "Integration versus Outsourcing in Industry Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 85-120.
    30. Du, Julan & Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang, 2009. "Bi-sourcing in the global economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 215-222, April.
    31. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    32. Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås & Enrico Pinali & Massimo Geloso Grosso, 2006. "Logistics and Time as a Trade Barrier," OECD Trade Policy Papers 35, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vrh, Nataša, 2015. "Pay-off to Participation in Global Value Chains: How Much are New EU Member States Lagging behind the Rest of EU Countries in Terms of Domestic Value Added in Exports?," MPRA Paper 67805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Meng, Bo & Ye, Ming, 2022. "Smile curves in global value chains: Foreign- vs. domestic-owned firms; the U.S. vs. China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 15-29.
    3. Bo Meng & Ming Ye & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2020. "Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(5), pages 988-1016, October.
    4. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Martin Borowiecki & Bernhard Dachs & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Steffen Kinkel & Johannes Pöschl & Magdolna Sass & Thomas Christian Schmall & Robert Stehrer & Andrea Szalavetz, 2012. "Global Value Chains and the EU Industry," wiiw Research Reports 383, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. ye, ming, 2016. "Trace the goods and value-added route in exports," MPRA Paper 73476, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dermot Leahy & Catia Montagna, 2006. "'Make-or-Buy' in International Oligopoly and the Role of Competitive Pressure," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 197, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    8. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    9. Elhanan Helpman, 2006. "Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 589-630, September.
    10. Chrysovalantou Milliou & Joel Sandonis, 2016. "Vertical Foreign Direct Investment: Make, Sell and (Not) Buy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6190, CESifo.
    11. Christopher Johann Kurz, 2006. "Outstanding Outsourcers: A Firm- and Plant-Level Analysis of Production Sharing," Working Papers 06-02, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    12. Dermot Leahy & Catia Montagna, 2011. "Economising, Strategising and the Decision to Outsource," Discussion Papers 11/17, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    13. Pol Antràs & Robert W. Staiger, 2012. "Offshoring and the Role of Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3140-3183, December.
    14. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Christopher J. Kurz, 2006. "Outstanding outsourcers: a firm- and plant-level analysis of production sharing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Ornelas, Emanuel & Turner, John L., 2008. "Trade liberalization, outsourcing, and the hold-up problem," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 225-241, January.
    17. Rosario Crinò, 2009. "Offshoring, Multinationals And Labour Market: A Review Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 197-249, April.
    18. Inga Heiland, 2017. "Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows and the Gains from Globalization," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 74.
    19. Brooks, Douglas H. & Ferrarini, Benno, 2014. "Vertical gravity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 1-9.
    20. Li, Ben & Lu, Yi, 2009. "Geographic concentration and vertical disintegration: Evidence from China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 294-304, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international supply chain; trade elasticity; global crisis; trade collapse; input-output analysis; error-correction-model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wtoerch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.