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Life Course Heterogeneity and the Future Labour Force – a Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis for Austria

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Horvath
  • Martin Spielauer

    (WIFO)

  • Philipp Warum

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Capturing the heterogeneity of life courses improves the accuracy, detail and policy relevance of population and labour force projections. Our study uses the microsimulation model microDEMS for Austria, which simulates individual life courses at a high level of detail and in their family context. The model pays particular attention to educational attainment, health and labour market participation. By maintaining the longitudinal consistency of labour market careers, including the tracking of insurance periods, together with the implementation of detailed retirement rules, our model provides realistic representations of retirement decisions. While we reproduce the demographic outcomes of official (Statistics Austria) population projections, including international migration by region of birth, we integrate several additional dimensions, such as educational differentials in mortality and fertility. MicroDEMS allows to consider a wide range of scenarios when assessing the sensitivity of results, or to focus on the impact of policy changes targeted at specific population subgroups, such as mothers, immigrants, or people with health impairments or lower educational levels. MicroDEMS is a detailed national version of the comparative microWELT model. In this context, microDEMS is used for sensitivity analysis and case studies to assess potential specification bias introduced in microWELT due to the neglect of institutional detail or the less detailed treatment of population heterogeneity, such as in the case of international migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Horvath & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum, 2024. "Life Course Heterogeneity and the Future Labour Force – a Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis for Austria," WIFO Working Papers 674, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2024:i:674
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
    2. Benjamin Bittschi & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer & Christine Mayrhuber & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum, 2024. "Assessing the Labour Supply Effect of Harmonising Regular Retirement Age in Austria," WIFO Working Papers 673, WIFO.
    3. Elke Loichinger & Bernhard Hammer & Alexia Prskawetz & Michael Freiberger & Joze Sambt, 2017. "Quantifying Economic Dependency," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 351-380, July.
    4. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2015. "Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(4), pages 687-708, December.
    5. Thomas Horvath & Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer & Thomas Url, 2021. "The Impact of Education and Health on Labour Force Participation and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67107, February.
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    Keywords

    Dynamic microsimulation; Pension reform; Labour force participation;
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