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A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty

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  • Michael Ryan

    (University of Waikato)

Abstract

We quantify the effects of policy uncertainty on the economy using a proxy structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Our instrument in the proxy SVAR is a set of exogenous uncertainty events constructed using a text-based narrative approach. Usually the narrative approach involves manually reading texts, which is difficult in our application as our text—the parliamentary record—is unstructured and lengthy. To deal with such circumstances, we develop a procedure using a natural language technique, latent Dirichlet analysis. Our procedure extends the possible application of the narrative identification approach. We find the effects of policy uncertainty are significant, and are underestimated using alternative identification methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
  • Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:20/10
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Latent Dirichlet allocation; narrative identification; policy uncertainty; Proxy SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

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