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Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Di Maio
  • Patricia Justino
  • Valerio Leone Sciabolazza
  • Cecilia Nardi

Abstract

We show that the Russia-Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Di Maio & Patricia Justino & Valerio Leone Sciabolazza & Cecilia Nardi, 2024. "Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2024-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-30
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