IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unm/unumer/2009016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic environmental effects, demographic variation, and economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Azomahou, Theophile

    (UNU-MERIT)

  • Mishra, Tapas

    (School of Business and Economics, University of Wales Swansea)

Abstract

We consider a stochastic environment to study interactions among pollution growth, demographic changes, and economic growth. Drawing on the empirical findings of slow convergence patterns of pollution shocks (viz., with a long-memory), we build an analytical framework where stochastic environmental feedback effects on population changes are reflected upon aggregate economic growth. Long-memory in economic growth, in our model, is shown to arise due to the inherent stochasticity in environmental and demographic system. Empirical results for a set of developed and developing countries generally support our conjecture. Simulation experiment is carried out to lend additional support to this claim.

Suggested Citation

  • Azomahou, Theophile & Mishra, Tapas, 2009. "Stochastic environmental effects, demographic variation, and economic growth," MERIT Working Papers 2009-016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2009016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/wppdf/2009/wp2009-016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irmi Seidl & Clem A. Tisdell, 2003. "Carrying capacity reconsidered: from Malthus' population theory to cultural carrying capacity," Chapters, in: Ecological and Environmental Economics, chapter 13, pages 192-206, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Azomahou, Theophile & Laisney, Francois & Nguyen Van, Phu, 2006. "Economic development and CO2 emissions: A nonparametric panel approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 1347-1363, August.
    3. Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 1995. "Endogenous Population Growth May Imply Chaos," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 59-80, February.
    4. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Dominique Peeters, 2007. "Early Literacy Achievements, Population Density, and the Transition to Modern Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 183-226, March.
    5. Daniel L. Millimet & John A. List & Thanasis Stengos, 2003. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Real Progress or Misspecified Models?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1038-1047, November.
    6. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    7. Marc Nerlove & Efraim Sadka, 1991. "Von Thünen's model of the dual economy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 97-123, June.
    8. Theodore Panayotou, 2000. "Population and Environment," CID Working Papers 54A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    9. Daniel J. Henderson & Daniel L. Millimet, 2007. "Pollution Abatement Costs and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to U.S. States: A Nonparametric Reassessment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 178-183, February.
    10. L. A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "A fractional integration analysis of the population in some OECD countries," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1147-1159.
    11. Susanne Soretz, 2003. "Stochastic Pollution and Environmental Care in an Endogenous Growth Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(4), pages 448-469, July.
    12. Clifford M. Hurvich & Rohit Deo & Julia Brodsky, 1998. "The mean squared error of Geweke and Porter‐Hudak's estimator of the memory parameter of a long‐memory time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 19-46, January.
    13. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
    14. Durlauf, Steven N, 1991. "Multiple Equilibria and Persistence in Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 70-74, May.
    15. Mishra Tapas, 2008. "Stochastic Demographic Dynamics and Economic Growth: An Application and Insights from the World Data," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 33(4), pages 9-190.
    16. Nguyen Van, Phu & Azomahou, Theophile, 2007. "Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in environmental quality: An empirical analysis of deforestation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 291-309, September.
    17. Shafik, Nemat, 1994. "Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(0), pages 757-773, Supplemen.
    18. Cropper, Maureen & Griffiths, Charles, 1994. "The Interaction of Population Growth and Environmental Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 250-254, May.
    19. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 1999. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 231-244, February.
    20. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    21. Byung M. Jeon & Robin C. Sickles, 2004. "The role of environmental factors in growth accounting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 567-591.
    22. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    23. K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Environmental Economics," Handbook of Environmental Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    24. Pommeret, Aude & Smith, William T., 2005. "Fertility, volatility, and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 347-353, June.
    25. Bhattarai, Madhusudan & Hammig, Michael, 2001. "Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation: A Crosscountry Analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 995-1010, June.
    26. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    27. Partha Dasgupta, 1995. "The Population Problem: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1879-1902, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt & Mamata Parhi, 2010. "Stochasticity in Population and Economic Growth with Past Dependence," Working Papers 10-10, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen Van, Phu & Azomahou, Theophile, 2007. "Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in environmental quality: An empirical analysis of deforestation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 291-309, September.
    2. Novice Patrick Bakehe, 2019. "The effects of migrant remittances on deforestation in the Congo basin," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2361-2373.
    3. Huixia Zhao & Emi Uchida & Xiangzheng Deng & Scott Rozelle, 2011. "Do Trees Grow with the Economy? A Spatial Analysis of the Determinants of Forest Cover Change in Sichuan, China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 61-82, September.
    4. Laetitia Duval & François-Charles Wolff, 2009. "L'effet des transferts migratoires sur la déforestation dans les pays en développement," Working Papers hal-00421222, HAL.
    5. Théophile T. Azomahou & Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi, 2015. "Economic Growth under Stochastic Population and Pollution Shocks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(3), pages 314-345, June.
    6. Azomahou, Theophile & Laisney, Francois & Nguyen Van, Phu, 2006. "Economic development and CO2 emissions: A nonparametric panel approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 1347-1363, August.
    7. Kinda, Harouna & Thiombiano, Noel, 2021. "The effects of extractive industries rent on deforestation in developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Damette, Olivier & Delacote, Philippe, 2012. "On the economic factors of deforestation: What can we learn from quantile analysis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2427-2434.
    9. Claude Diebolt & Tapas K. Mishra, 2006. "Cliometrics of the Abiding Nexus Between Demographic Components and Economic Development," Working Papers 06-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    10. Culas, Richard J., 2012. "REDD and forest transition: Tunneling through the environmental Kuznets curve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 44-51.
    11. Tapas Mishra & Claude Diebolt, 2010. "Demographic volatility and economic growth: convention and beyond," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-45, January.
    12. Caravaggio, Nicola, 2020. "Economic growth and the forest development path: A theoretical re-assessment of the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    13. Yi-Bin Chiu, 2012. "Deforestation and the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Developing Countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 60(2), pages 177-194, June.
    14. Novice Patrick Bakehe, 2020. "L'accès à l’électricité: une solution pour réduire la déforestation en Afrique?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 338-348, September.
    15. Jie He, 2007. "Is the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis valid for developing countries? A survey," Cahiers de recherche 07-03, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    16. Sebri, Maamar, 2009. "La Zone Méditerranéenne Face à la Pollution de L’air : Une Investigation Econométrique [The Mediterranean Zone in front of Air pollution: an Econometric Investigation]," MPRA Paper 32382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2017. "Trade and Environmental Quality in African Countries: Do Institutions Matter?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 155-172, January.
    18. Ajanaku, B.A. & Collins, A.R., 2021. "Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Phu Nguyen Van, 2003. "A semiparametric analysis of determinants of a protected area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 661-665.
    20. He, Jie & Richard, Patrick, 2010. "Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1083-1093, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Quality; Long-memory; Demographic Dynamics; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2009016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ad Notten (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/meritnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.