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State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Fazzari

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • James Morley

    (School of Economics, University of New South Wales)

  • Irina Panovska

    (Rauch Business Center, Lehigh University)

Abstract

We investigate the eects of government spending on U.S. output with a threshold structural vector autoregressive model. We consider Bayesian model comparison and generalized impulse response analysis to test for nonlinearities in the responses of output to government spending. Our empirical ndings support state-dependent eects of scal policy, with the government spending multiplier larger and more persistent whenever there is considerable economic slack. Based on capacity utilization as the preferred threshold variable, the estimated multiplier is large (1.6) for a low-utilization regime that accounts for more than half of the sample observations from 1967-2012 according to the estimated threshold level.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2014. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27C, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2012-27c
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    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2012-27.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Spending; Threshold Model; Vector Autoregression; Nonlinear Dynamics; Impulse-Response Comparison; Bayesian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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