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The cult of statistical significance. What economists should and should not do to make their data talk

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  • Walter Krämer

Abstract

This article takes issue with a recent book by Ziliak and McCloskey (2008) of the same title. Ziliak and McCloskey argue that statistical significance testing is a barrier rather than a booster for empirical research in economics and should therefore be abandoned altogether. The present article argues that this is good advice in some research areas but not in others. Taking all issues which have appeared so far of the German Economic Review and a recent epidemiological meta-analysis as examples, it shows that there has indeed been a lot of misleading work in the context of significance testing, and that at the same time many promising avenues for fruitfully employing statistical significance tests, disregarded by Ziliak and McCloskey, have not been used.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Krämer, 2011. "The cult of statistical significance. What economists should and should not do to make their data talk," RatSWD Working Papers 176, German Data Forum (RatSWD).
    • Handle: RePEc:rsw:rswwps:rswwps176
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    1. Ronald Bachmann & Michael C. Burda, 2010. "Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(1), pages 37-59, February.
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    7. Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak‐Lehmann D. & Stephan Klasen & Mario Larch, 2009. "Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(3), pages 317-338, August.
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    9. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
    10. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    11. Krämer Walter & Arminger Gerhard, 2011. "“True Believers” or Numerical Terrorism at the Nuclear Power Plant," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(5-6), pages 608-620, October.
    12. Bettina Becker & Silke Uebelmesser, 2010. "Health Insurance Competition in Germany - the Role of Advertising," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 130(2), pages 169-194.
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    1. About the cult of statistical significance
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-03-07 20:40:00

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    1. Frings Hanna, 2013. "The Employment Effect of Industry- Specific, Collectively Bargained Minimum Wages," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 258-281, August.
    2. Jens Rommel & Meike Weltin, 2021. "Is There a Cult of Statistical Significance in Agricultural Economics?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1176-1191, September.
    3. Hirschauer, Norbert & Grüner, Sven & Mußhoff, Oliver & Becker, Claudia & Jantsch, Antje, 2020. "Can p-values be meaningfully interpreted without random sampling?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14, pages 71-91.
    4. Pilny, Adam, 2014. "Mergers and Acquisitions in the German Hospital Market – Who are the Targets?," Ruhr Economic Papers 518, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0518 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Alice Neuhäuser & Maike Mischler & Graeme Ruxton & Markus Neuhäuser, 2013. "Gründe für von der Fraktionsdisziplin abweichendes Abstimmungsverhalten bei Bundestagsabgeordneten," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 7(1), pages 91-99, August.
    7. Thomas Mayer, 2012. "Ziliak and McCloskey's Criticisms of Significance Tests: An Assessment," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 256-297, September.
    8. Bernhard Rauch & Max G�ttsche & Stephan Langenegger, 2014. "Detecting Problems in Military Expenditure Data Using Digital Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 97-111, April.
    9. Wobker, Inga & Lehmann-Waffenschmidt, Marco & Kenning, Peter & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2012. "What do people know about the economy? A test of minimal economic knowledge in Germany," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 03/12, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    10. W. Krämer, 2018. "Interview mit Volker Mammitzsch," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(2), pages 179-188, September.
    11. Adam Pilny, 2014. "Mergers and Acquisitions in the German Hospital Market – Who are the Targets?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0518, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Stephen T. Ziliak & Deirdre N. McCloskey, 2013. "We Agree That Statistical Significance Proves Essentially Nothing: A Rejoinder to Thomas Mayer," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 10(1), pages 97-107, January.
    13. Bücker, Michael & van Kampen, Maarten & Krämer, Walter, 2013. "Reject inference in consumer credit scoring with nonignorable missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1040-1045.
    14. Hirschauer Norbert & Grüner Sven & Mußhoff Oliver & Becker Claudia, 2019. "Twenty Steps Towards an Adequate Inferential Interpretation of p-Values in Econometrics," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 703-721, August.
    15. Hübler, Olaf, 2013. "Methods in empirical economics - a selective review with applications," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-513, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    16. Walter Krämer, 2018. "Interview mit Günter Bamberg," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 299-307, December.
    17. Hirschauer Norbert & Grüner Sven & Mußhoff Oliver & Frey Ulrich & Theesfeld Insa & Wagner Peter, 2016. "Die Interpretation des p-Wertes – Grundsätzliche Missverständnisse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(5), pages 557-575, October.
    18. Hübler, Olaf, 2014. "Estimation of standard errors and treatment effects in empirical economics : methods and applications," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 47(1-2), pages 43-62.
    19. Thomas Mayer, 2013. "Reply to Deirdre McCloskey and Stephen Ziliak on Statistical Significance," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 10(1), pages 87-96, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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