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Computerization Threatens One-Third of Finnish and Norwegian Employment

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  • Pajarinen, Mika
  • Rouvinen, Petri
  • Ekeland, Anders

Abstract

We find that one-third of both Finnish and Norwegian employment will be highly susceptible to computerization in the next decade or two. Low-wage and low-skill occupations appear to be more threatened. Service and public sector jobs are relatively more sheltered than those in manufacturing and the private sector. Nevertheless, computerization will, to some extent, affect all occupations. There can be considerable difficulties for economies to adjust in the shorter run simply because there may be an overwhelming amount of job destruction and an insufficient amount of job creation. The digital transformation of society itself, however, creates a significant number of new needs, and a good way to respond to these needs is to place major emphasis on giving the workforce appropriate and adaptable competences.

Suggested Citation

  • Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri & Ekeland, Anders, 2015. "Computerization Threatens One-Third of Finnish and Norwegian Employment," ETLA Brief 34, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:briefs:34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    3. Kenji Kushida & Jonathan Murray & John Zysman, 2015. "Cloud Computing: From Scarcity to Abundance," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-19, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Filippi, Emilia & Bannò, Mariasole & Trento, Sandro, 2023. "Automation technologies and the risk of substitution of women: Can gender equality in the institutional context reduce the risk?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Martin Labaj & Materj Vitalos, 2019. "Automation and labor demand in European countries: A task-based approach to wage bill decomposition," Department of Economic Policy Working Paper Series 021, Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava.
    3. Leibrecht, Markus & Scharler, Johann & Zhoufu, Yan, 2023. "Automation and unemployment: Does collective bargaining moderate their association?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-276.
    4. Andreas Eder & Wolfgang Koller & Bernhard Mahlberg, 2022. "Economy 4.0: employment effects by occupation, industry, and gender," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1063-1088, November.
    5. Lee, King Fuei, 2016. "Automation, Computerisation and Future Employment in Singapore," MPRA Paper 79961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yang, Siying & Liu, Fengshuo & Lu, Jingjing & He, Xiaogang, 2022. "Does occupational injury promote industrial robot applications?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Sorgner, Alina, 2017. "Jobs at Risk!? Effects of Automation of Jobs on Occupational Mobility," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168088, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Michael Coelli & Jeff Borland, 2019. "Behind the headline number: Why not to rely on Frey and Osborne’s predictions of potential job loss from automation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n10, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Heikkilä, Jussi & Lööf, Hans & Martinsuo, Miia & Mohammadi, Ali & Olhager, Jan & Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri & Tuhkuri, Joonas, . "International Sourcing in Finland and Sweden," ETLA B, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 275.
    10. Peter Haiss & Bernhard Mahlberg & Daniel Michlits, 2021. "Industry 4.0–the future of Austrian jobs," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 5-36, February.
    11. Miklós Illéssy & Ákos Huszár & Csaba Makó, 2021. "Technological Development and the Labour Market: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Automation in Hungary in the International Comparison?," Societies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, August.
    12. Filippi, Emilia & Bannò, Mariasole & Trento, Sandro, 2023. "Automation technologies and their impact on employment: A review, synthesis and future research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Kinga Hat & Gernot Stoeglehner, 2020. "Spatial Dimension of the Employment Market Exposition to Digitalisation—The Case of Austria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-29, March.
    14. Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson & Helgi Thor Ingason & Haukur Ingi Jonasson & Hildur Jonsdottir, 2021. "An Authoritative Study on the Near Future Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Project Management Knowledge Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    15. Alina Sorgner, 2017. "The Automation of Jobs: A Threat for Employment or a Source of New Entrepreneurial Opportunities?," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 37-48.
    16. Tuhkuri, Joonas, 2016. "Globalization Threatens One Quarter of Finnish Employment," ETLA Brief 46, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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