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Credit Smoothing and Determinants of Loan Loss Reserves. Evidence from Europe, US, Asia and Africa

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  • Ozili, Peterson K

Abstract

This study provides a link between accounting, managerial discretion and monetary policy. Monetary authorities encourage banking institutions to supply credit to the economy. Increased bank supply of credit is a good thing but too much of a good can be a bad thing. This paper investigates under what circumstances excessive loan supply ceases to be a good thing and how bank managers react to this. After examining 82 bank samples, I find that (i) bank underestimate the level of reserves to boost credit supply in line with expectations of monetary authorities, particularly, in Asia and UK (ii) consistent with the credit smoothing hypothesis, US and Chinese banks smooth credit supply to minimize unintended stock market signaling; (iii) managerial priority during a recession is to smooth credit over time rather than to boost credit supply; (iv) non-performing loans, bank portfolio risk and loan portfolio size are significant determinants of the level of loan loss reserves; and (v) credit risk, proxy by loan growth, do not have a significant impact on loan loss reserves but tend to have some significant effect during a recession, particularly, when change in loans is negative. The implications of these findings are two-fold: (i) bank managers use their discretion over reserves to influence bank credit supply; (ii) bank supply of credit is not solely driven by loan demand but by a combination of several factors, particularly, capital market concerns, the need to avoid scrutiny from monetary authorities, and country-specific factors.

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  • Ozili, Peterson K, 2015. "Credit Smoothing and Determinants of Loan Loss Reserves. Evidence from Europe, US, Asia and Africa," MPRA Paper 62641, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62641
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    2. Kiridaran Kanagaretnam & Gerald J. Lobo & Dong†Hoon Yang, 2004. "Joint Tests of Signaling and Income Smoothing through Bank Loan Loss Provisions," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 843-884, December.
    3. Lobo, Gerald J & Yang, Dong-Hoon, 2001. "Bank Managers' Heterogeneous Decisions on Discretionary Loan Loss Provisions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 223-250, May.
    4. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    5. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    6. El Sood, Heba Abou, 2012. "Loan loss provisioning and income smoothing in US banks pre and post the financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 64-72.
    7. Iftekhar Hasan & Larry D. Wall, 2004. "Determinants of the Loan Loss Allowance: Some Cross‐Country Comparisons," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 129-152, February.
    8. Liu, Cc & Ryan, Sg, 1995. "The Effect Of Bank Loan Portfolio Composition On The Market Reaction To And Anticipation Of Loan Loss Provisions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 77-94.
    9. Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J & Mathieu, Robert, 2003. "Managerial Incentives for Income Smoothing through Bank Loan Loss Provisions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 63-80, January.
    10. Ozili, Peterson K, 2015. "Loan Loss Provisioning, Income Smoothing, Signaling, Capital Management and Procyclicality: Does IFRS Matter? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 68350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Beaver, William H. & Engel, Ellen E., 1996. "Discretionary behavior with respect to allowances for loan losses and the behavior of security prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-3), pages 177-206, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozili, PK, 2015. "How Bank Managers Anticipate Non-Performing Loans. Evidence from Europe, US, Asia and Africa," MPRA Paper 63681, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Risk; Monetary Policy; Loan Loss Reserves; Credit Smoothing; Accounting; Signaling; Bank supervision.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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