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A comparative assessment of aggregate car ownership model estimation methodologies

Author

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  • Sambracos, Evangelos
  • Paravantis, John

Abstract

This work examines the implications of advances in time series analysis on car ownership modeling in Greece. Variables include adults population ratio, GDP per capita, car occupancy, bus kilometers, inflation and unemployment. We developed and compared (a) a classical regression model estimated on raw levels, (b) an econometric model estimated on data stationarized using graphical and unit root tests and (c) an "atheoretical" ARIMA model. Although significant methodological implications were noted, all models forecast 48 to 49 private cars per 100 inhabitants by the year 2010, a development of momentous energy and environmental implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Sambracos, Evangelos & Paravantis, John, 2006. "A comparative assessment of aggregate car ownership model estimation methodologies," MPRA Paper 52294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52294
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Scholl, Lynn & Schipper, Lee & Kiang, Nancy, 1996. "CO2 emissions from passenger transport : A comparison of international trends from 1973 to 1992," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 17-30, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    car ownership; aggregate models; regression; time series analysis; forecasting.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • L99 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Other

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