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India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective

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  • Utsav, Kumar

Abstract

Age structure and its dynamics are critical in understanding the impact of population growth on a country’s growth prospects. Using state-level data from India, we show that the pace of demographic transition varies across states, and that these differences are likely to be exacerbated over the period 2011-2026. We show that the so-called BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh) are likely to see a continuing increase in the share of the working-age population in total population. The BIMARU states are expected to contribute 58% of the increase in India’s working-age population. The BIMARU states have traditionally been the slow-growing states and have performed poorly on different accounts of social and physical infrastructure. Whether India can turn demographic dividend into a boon or whether the dividend will become a bane will critically depend on the ability of the BIMARU states to exploit the bulge in the working-age population.

Suggested Citation

  • Utsav, Kumar, 2010. "India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? A State-Level Perspective," MPRA Paper 24922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
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    3. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2011. "The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth?," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-42.
    4. T. Ravi Kumar, 2002. "The Impact of Regional Infrastructure Investment in India," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 194-200.
    5. Kochhar, Kalpana & Kumar, Utsav & Rajan, Raghuram & Subramanian, Arvind & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2006. "India's pattern of development: What happened, what follows?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 981-1019, July.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2010. "The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth?," Development Economics Working Papers 23030, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Md zulquar Nain & Sai sailaja Bharatam & Bandi Kamaiah, 2017. "Electricity consumption and NSDP nexus in Indian states: a panel analysis with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1581-1601.
    2. Utsav Kumar & Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "India's Growth in the 2000s: Four Facts," Working Paper Series WP11-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic dividend; economic growth; India; population growth; working-age population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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