IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pid/wpaper/2018156.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring the Sufficient Debt Sustainability Condition in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Beenash Malik

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • M. Ali Kemal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract

A debt sustainability issue is important when government do not follow any fiscal cliff and interest payments are consuming significant part of the resources. This thesis calculates sufficient condition of debt sustainability in Pakistan. It uses simple textbook methodology of government budget constraint, accounting approach to measure sustainability of debt. We have checked the extent of nominal as well as real GDP growth required to main the debt-GDP ratio level at 60 percent, 50 percent and 40 percent with level of fiscal deficit 5 percent, 4.5 percent, 4 percent, 3.5 percent and 3 percent. Thesis concludes that lower the fiscal deficit higher possibility of maintaining the debt at its sustainable level. Moreover, lower the fiscal deficit higher will be the chances to finance development expenditures as well redistribute the impact of growth. Moreover, it is also examined that maintaining debt-GDP ratio at certain level implies that we do not need to retire debt further and growth in national income is used to serve development expenditures instead of using it for debt retirement. Reducing the debt to GDP ratio by debt repayments may costs us the projects which can be beneficial for growth in those year. The projects may not set up during the time of debt retirement, thus long run growth may suffer and long run impact will be negative. Therefore, it is better to select a threshold level which maximises the use of government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Beenash Malik & M. Ali Kemal, 2018. "Measuring the Sufficient Debt Sustainability Condition in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2018:156, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2018:156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/Working%20Paper/WorkingPaper-156.pdf
    File Function: First Version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
    2. Faiz Bilquees, 2003. "An Analysis of Budget Deficits, Debt Accumulation, and Debt Instability," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 177-195.
    3. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    4. Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 08, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    5. Silvio Contessi, 2012. "An application of conventional sovereign debt sustainability analysis to the current debt crises," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(May), pages 197-220.
    6. M. Ali Kemal & Omer Siddique & Ahmed Waqar Qasim, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation and Economic Growth: Insights from the Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 349-367.
    7. Viviane Luporini, 1999. "Sustainability of the Brazilian fiscal policy and central bank independence," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td125, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    8. Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 1, pages 35-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saaed, A.A.J., 2007. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005. Evidence from Co-Integration and Error Correction Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    2. Md. Sharif Hossain & Md. Thasinul Abedin, 2016. "Multivariate Dynamic Co-integration and Causality Analysis between Inflation and its Determinants," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(5), pages 240-250.
    3. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Muhammad Nadeem Hanif, 2010. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies Coordination: Pakistan’s Experience," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 3-13.
    4. Pierre ALDAMA & Jérôme Creel, 2017. "Fiscal policy in the US : Ricardian after all ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Muhammad Farooq Arby & Amjad Ali, 2017. "Threshold Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 1-19.
    6. Borgersen, Trond-Arne & King, Roswitha M., 2014. "Structural origins of debt-sustainability in mature and transition economies: Domar, Balassa–Samuelson and Maastricht," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    7. ​pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2016. "Why fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability analysis: an application to France," Sciences Po publications 2016-15, Sciences Po.
    8. Philip Arestis & Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh, 2004. "Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 214-222, April.
    9. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    10. Athanasios Papadopoulos & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 1999. "The sustainability of fiscal policies in the European Union," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(3), pages 289-307, August.
    11. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," Research Department Publications 4371, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Maciej Wysocki & Cezary Wójcik, 2021. "Fiscal sustainability in the EU after the global crisis: Is there any progress? Evidence from Poland," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3997-4012, July.
    14. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    15. Wasim Shahid Malik & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2010. "Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 37-56.
    16. Corbo, Vittorio & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "Structural adjustment, stabilization and policy reform: Domestic and international finance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2845-2924, Elsevier.
    17. Malte Rengel, 2020. "Sustainability of European fiscal balances: Just a statistical artifact?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1681-1712, April.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3161 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chow, Sheung Chi, 2013. "The sustainability of fiscal policy: A group-mean panel estimator approach," MPRA Paper 57808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    21. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Wu, Chien-Wei & Chiu, Hsien-Hung & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2013. "Covariate unit root tests under structural change and asymmetric STAR dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 101-112.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2018:156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.