IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/man/sespap/2002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cross-Border Spillovers in Foreign Currency Credit

Author

Listed:
  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis
  • Christos S. Savva

Abstract

This paper examines the presence of cross-country spillovers in foreign currency loans. We use spatial econometric techniques and a unique monthly dataset of loan shares in foreign currency denomination, extending over three decades for 23 emerging countries, to assess how changes in local monetary policy affect domestic banks’ currency lending portfolios and how the latter changes transmit to other countries. We find strong evidence of cross-border spillovers in the proportion of foreign currency credit. Spillovers are channelled by geographic linkages between countries and pass through to all countries in a network with higher potency for more proximate countries. Monetary policy interventions that influence lending in foreign currency in one country can, therefore, affect lending in neighboring countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2020. "Cross-Border Spillovers in Foreign Currency Credit," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2002, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:2002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/economics/discussionpapers/EDP-2002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Brown & Karolin Kirschenmann & Steven Ongena, 2014. "Bank Funding, Securitization, and Loan Terms: Evidence from Foreign Currency Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1501-1534, October.
    2. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    3. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June.
    4. Temesvary, Judit & Ongena, Steven & Owen, Ann L., 2018. "A global lending channel unplugged? Does U.S. monetary policy affect cross-border and affiliate lending by global U.S. banks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 50-69.
    5. Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Mr. Jarkko Turunen & Malin Gardberg, 2018. "Dollarization and Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2018/200, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    7. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Ongena, Steven, 2012. "“Lending by example”: Direct and indirect effects of foreign banks in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 167-180.
    8. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2009. "International R&D spillovers and institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 723-741, October.
    9. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and The Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 663-691.
    10. Abuka, Charles & Alinda, Ronnie K. & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2019. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending in Developing Countries: Loan Applications, Rates, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 185-202.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    12. Michael D. König & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2017. "Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence From the Great War of Africa," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1093-1132, July.
    13. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    14. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "HAC estimation in a spatial framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 131-154, September.
    15. Kishor, Narayan K. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2015. "What Is Driving Financial Dollarization In Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 816-835, June.
    16. Marcos Sanso‐Navarro & Maria Vera‐Cabello & Domingo P. Ximénez‐De‐Embún, 2017. "Human Capital Spillovers and Regional Development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 923-930, June.
    17. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Conley, Timothy G & Ligon, Ethan, 2002. "Economic Distance and Cross-Country Spillovers," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 157-187, June.
    19. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    20. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    21. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    22. Christoph Rosenberg & Marcel Tirpák, 2009. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(3), pages 216-228, August.
    23. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    24. Ashcraft, Adam B., 2006. "New Evidence on the Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 751-775, April.
    25. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2012. "International shock transmission after the Lehman Brothers collapse – evidence from syndicated lending," Working Papers 142, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    26. Arteta Carlos O., 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Currency Mismatches in Bank Intermediation?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, May.
    27. Basso, Henrique S. & Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Jurgilas, Marius, 2011. "Financial dollarization: The role of foreign-owned banks and interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 794-806, April.
    28. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2010. "Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 257-282, August.
    29. Honig, Adam, 2009. "Dollarization, exchange rate regimes and government quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 198-214, March.
    30. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences [‘A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 62-118.
    31. Ralph De Haas & Iman Van Lelyveld, 2014. "Multinational Banks and the Global Financial Crisis: Weathering the Perfect Storm?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 333-364, February.
    32. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    33. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje Van Horen, 2014. "Foreign Banks: Trends and Impact," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 295-326, February.
    34. Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas, 2012. "Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe [Capital structure and financial risk: evidence from foreign debt use in East Asia]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 57-98.
    35. Tigran Poghosyan, 2020. "Cross‐country spillovers of fiscal consolidations in the euro area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 18-46, March.
    36. Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014. "Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.
    37. Ongena, Steven & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2013. "“When the cat's away the mice will play”: Does regulation at home affect bank risk-taking abroad?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 727-750.
    38. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    39. Jayaratne, Jith & Morgan, Donald P, 2000. "Capital Market Frictions and Deposit Constraints at Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 74-92, February.
    40. Kishan, Ruby P & Opiela, Timothy P, 2000. "Bank Size, Bank Capital, and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 121-141, February.
    41. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    42. Kelejian, Harry H. & Piras, Gianfranco, 2014. "Estimation of spatial models with endogenous weighting matrices, and an application to a demand model for cigarettes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 140-149.
    43. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    44. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & Seidel, Tobias, 2009. "Common political culture: Evidence on regional corruption contagion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 300-310, September.
    45. Mi Lin & Yum K. Kwan, 2017. "FDI Spatial Spillovers in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(8), pages 1514-1530, August.
    46. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2009. "Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1860-1873, October.
    47. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2012. "International Shock Transmission after the Lehman Brothers Collapse: Evidence from Syndicated Lending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 231-237, May.
    48. Mariassunta Giannetti & Steven Ongena, 2009. "Financial Integration and Firm Performance: Evidence from Foreign Bank Entry in Emerging Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 181-223.
    49. Nicolo, Gianni De & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2005. "Dollarization of bank deposits: Causes and consequences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1697-1727, July.
    50. Emidio Cocozza & Paolo Piselli, 2011. "Testing for East-West contagion in the European banking sector during the financial crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 790, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    51. Luca, Alina & Petrova, Iva, 2008. "What drives credit dollarization in transition economies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 858-869, May.
    52. Mr. Adolfo Barajas & Mr. Armando Méndez Morales, 2003. "Dollarization of Liabilities: Beyond the Usual Suspects," IMF Working Papers 2003/011, International Monetary Fund.
    53. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    54. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    55. M. Emranul Haque & Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2009. "Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 114, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2014. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through? The effects of monetary policy at home and abroad on the currency denomination of the supply of credit," CFS Working Paper Series 474, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    6. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    7. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    8. Takáts, Előd & Temesvary, Judit, 2020. "The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    10. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Do demand or supply factors drive bank credit,in good and crisis times?," Economics Working Papers 1567, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2010. "Credit supply - Identifying balance-sheet channels with loan applications and granted loans," Working Paper Series 1179, European Central Bank.
    12. Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2018. "Why do firms default on their foreign currency loans? The case of Hungary," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 207-222.
    13. Alper, Koray & Altunok, Fatih & Çapacıoğlu, Tanju & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Cross-Border Bank Loans: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Elisabeth Beckmann & Anita Roitner & Helmut Stix, 2015. "A Local or a Foreign Currency Loan? Evidence on the Role of Loan Characteristics, Preferences of Households and the Effect of Foreign Banks," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 24-48.
    15. Alexander Popov, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Bank Capital, and Credit Supply: A Role for Discouraged and Informally Rejected Firms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 95-141, March.
    16. Hardy, Bryan, 2023. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    19. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    20. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:sespap:2002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marianne Sensier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.