IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabkbe/202106.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

IAB-Prognose: Arbeitsmarkt auf dem Weg aus der Krise

Author

Listed:
  • Bauer, Anja

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Gartner, Hermann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Hummel, Markus

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Hutter, Christian

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Wanger, Susanne

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Zika, Gerd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"Die Corona-Lage verschärft sich, aber die Konjunktur befindet sich insgesamt wieder auf Erholungskurs. Nach einem Rückgang im ersten Quartal 2021 wird im Jahresverlauf ein deutlicher Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts erwartet, sodass das Autorenteam mit einem Gesamtwachstum von 3,4 Prozent rechnet. Die Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zeigt sich im zweiten Lockdown sehr robust und verbessert sich im Zuge der wirtschaftlichen Erholung. Für den Jahresdurchschnitt 2021 wird ein Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit um 110.000 Personen erwartet. Die Erwerbstätigkeit nimmt im Jahresverlauf 2021 spürbar zu, liegt aber im Jahresdurchschnitt um 80.000 Personen niedriger als im Vorjahr. Dies liegt vor allem an Rückgängen bei Minijobbern und Selbstständigen. Im Prognosejahr 2021 nimmt die Arbeitszeit insbesondere durch den Rückgang der Kurzarbeit um 1,8 Prozent zu, das Arbeitsvolumen steigt um 1,7 Prozent." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Suggested Citation

  • Bauer, Anja & Fuchs, Johann & Gartner, Hermann & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2021. "IAB-Prognose: Arbeitsmarkt auf dem Weg aus der Krise," IAB-Kurzbericht 202106, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2021/kb2021-06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Hutter & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Corona-Krise: die transformative Rezession [Corona Crisis: Transformative Recession]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 429-431, June.
    2. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2020. "GDP-employment decoupling in Germany," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 82-98.
    3. Christian Merkl & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Raus aus der Neueinstellungskrise! [End the Recruitment Crisis!]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 507-509, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Birgit Weber, 2022. "Demografische Alterung führt zu einem stark sinkenden Erwerbspersonenpotenzial [Demographic Ageing Leads to a Sharply Declining Labour Force Potential]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(2), pages 148-150, February.
    2. Peters, Sally & Roggemann, Hanne & Tran, Manh Cuong & Päsler, Maximilian, 2022. "iff-Überschuldungsreport 2022: Überschuldung in Deutschland," iff-Überschuldungsreport, Institut für Finanzdienstleistungen e.V. (iff), volume 127, number 2022.
    3. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2021. "Neue Schätzungen für die Stille Reserve - erstmalig Anwendung des IAB-Konzepts auf Gesamtdeutschland," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202106, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2021. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Demografische Entwicklung lässt das Arbeitskräfteangebot stark schrumpfen (Projection of the labor force potential up to 2060: Demographic developmen," IAB-Kurzbericht 202125, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bauer, Anja & Fuchs, Johann & Gartner, Hermann & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2020. "IAB-Prognose 2020/2021: Arbeitsmarkt auf schwierigem Erholungskurs," IAB-Kurzbericht 202019, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Gartner, Hermann & Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Große Rezession und Corona-Krise: Wie der Arbeitsmarkt zwei sehr unterschiedliche Krisen bewältigt (Great Recession and Corona crisis: How the labour market copes with two different crises)," IAB-Kurzbericht 202127, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2021. "Regional growth and disparities in a post‐COVID Europe: A new normality scenario," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 710-727, September.
    4. Li, Haojie & Zhang, Yingheng & Zhu, Manman & Ren, Gang, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on the usage of public bicycle share in London," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 140-155.
    5. Rubio-Domingo, G. & Linares, P., 2021. "The future investment costs of offshore wind: An estimation based on auction results," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Fuchs, Johann & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland & Zika, Gerd, 2014. "Arbeitsmarkt 2014/2015: Robust, aber risikobehaftet," IAB-Kurzbericht 201418, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Hutter, Christian, 2020. "A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(1), pages 1-4.
    8. Mihai Paunica & Alexandru Manole & Catalina Motofei & Gabriela-Lidia Tanase, 2021. "Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic Product," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(Special15), pages 914-914, November.
    9. Shelat, Sanmay & Cats, Oded & van Cranenburgh, Sander, 2022. "Traveller behaviour in public transport in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 357-371.
    10. Walwei, Ulrich, 2015. "From deregulation to re-regulation : trend reversal in German labour market institutions and its possible implications," IAB-Discussion Paper 201510, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. B. Contini & J. Ignacio Garcia Perez & T. Pusch & R. Quaranta, 2017. "New Approaches to the Study of Long Term Non-Employment Duration in Italy, Germany and Spain," Working Papers 2017-14, FEDEA.
    12. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2023. "Russia–Ukraine war: A note on short-run production and labour market effects of the energy crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    13. Chao Wu & Yu Hua, 2023. "Does Environmental Regulation Have an Employment Dividend? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-20, April.
    14. Belhadi, Amine & Kamble, Sachin & Jabbour, Charbel Jose Chiappetta & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Ndubisi, Nelson Oly & Venkatesh, Mani, 2021. "Manufacturing and service supply chain resilience to the COVID-19 outbreak: Lessons learned from the automobile and airline industries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    15. Mariola Piłatowska & Dorota Witkowska, 2022. "Gender Segregation at Work over Business Cycle—Evidence from Selected EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    16. Rossen, Anja & Roth, Duncan & Wapler, Rüdiger & Weyh, Antje, 2020. "Regionale Arbeitsmarktprognosen 2020/2021: Der Arbeitsmarkt erholt sich von der Corona-Krise regional sehr unterschiedlich (Labour Market Forecasts 2020/2021: Regional labour markets expected to recov," IAB-Kurzbericht 202020, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:55:i::p:art.1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Christian Hutter, 2021. "Cyclicality of labour market search: a new big data approach," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, December.
    19. Wyrwich, Michael & Steinberg, Philip J. & Noseleit, Florian & de Faria, Pedro, 2022. "Is open innovation imprinted on new ventures? The cooperation-inhibiting legacy of authoritarian regimes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    20. Madurai Elavarasan, Rajvikram & Shafiullah, GM & Raju, Kannadasan & Mudgal, Vijay & Arif, M.T. & Jamal, Taskin & Subramanian, Senthilkumar & Sriraja Balaguru, V.S. & Reddy, K.S. & Subramaniam, Umashan, 2020. "COVID-19: Impact analysis and recommendations for power sector operation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    21. Parajuli, Anubhuti & Kuzgunkaya, Onur & Vidyarthi, Navneet, 2021. "The impact of congestion on protection decisions in supply networks under disruptions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.