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On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags

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Abstract

We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long--about 1.5 years on average--and highly variable, (2) roughly one-third of projects are abandoned in planning, (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We construct a model with endogenous planning starts and abandonment that matches these facts. Endogenous abandonment makes short-term building supply more elastic, as price shocks immediately affect the exercise of construction options rather than just planning starts. The model has the testable implicationthat supply is more elastic when there are more “shovel ready†projects available to advance to construction. We use local projections to validate that this prediction holds in the cross-section for U.S. cities.

Suggested Citation

  • David P. Glancy & Robert J. Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein, 2024. "On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-16
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.016
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    Keywords

    Commercial real estate; Construction; Time to plan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction

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