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Stress testing of the Czech banking sector

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Abstract

This article presents the results of stress tests of the Czech banking sector conducted using models of credit risk and credit growth broken down by sector. The use of these models enables the stress tests to be linked to the CNB’s official quarterly macroeconomic forecast. In addition, the article updates the stress scenarios, including simple sensitivity analyses of credit risk for individual sectors. Based on the analysis, an answer is sought to the question of whether the observed credit growth to corporate sector and households poses any threat to the stability of the banking sector. The analyses conclude that the banking sector as a whole seems to be resilient to the macroeconomic shocks under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Jakubík & Jaroslav Heřmánek, 2008. "Stress testing of the Czech banking sector," Working Papers IES 2008/02, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2008_02
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/7496
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Markus Schwaiger, 2007. "Stress Testing the Exposure of Austrian Banks in Central and Eastern Europe," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 13, pages 115-134.
    3. Wagner, Wolf & Marsh, Ian W., 2006. "Credit risk transfer and financial sector stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 173-193, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cağatay Başarır, 2016. "A Macro Stress Test Model of Credit Risk for the Turkish Banking Sector," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 762-774, December.
    2. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Conservative Stress Testing: The Role of Regular Verification," Working Papers IES 2010/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
    3. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "How to Improve the Quality of Stress Tests through Backtesting," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 325-346, August.
    4. ?tefan Rychtárik, 2009. "Liquidity Scenario Analysis in the Luxembourg Banking Sector," BCL working papers 41, Central Bank of Luxembourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress testing; financial stability; credit risk; credit growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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