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Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk

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  • Bayer, Christian
  • Tjaden, Volker
  • Pham-Do, Lien
  • Lütticke, Ralph

Abstract

Households face large income uncertainty that varies substantially over the business cycle. We examine the macroeconomic consequences of these variations in a model with incomplete markets, liquid and illiquid assets, and a nominal rigidity. Heightened uncertainty depresses aggregate demand as households respond by hoarding liquid ``paper'' assets for precautionary motives, thereby reducing both illiquid physical investment and consumption demand. This translates into output losses, which a central bank can prevent by providing liquidity. We show that the welfare consequences of uncertainty shocks crucially depend on a household's asset position. Households with little human capital but high illiquid wealth lose the most from an uncertainty shock and gain the most from stabilization policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayer, Christian & Tjaden, Volker & Pham-Do, Lien & Lütticke, Ralph, 2015. "Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10849
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incomplete markets; Nominal rigidities; Uncertain shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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