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Modelling Risk-Weighted Assets: Looking Beyond Stress Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Josef Sveda
  • Jiri Panos
  • Vojtech Siuda

Abstract

We propose an improved methodology for modelling potential scenario paths of banks' risk-weighted assets, which drive the denominator of capital adequacy ratios. Our approach centres on modelling the internal risk structure of bank portfolios and thus aims to provide more accurate estimations than the common portfolio level approaches used in top-down stress testing frameworks. This should reduce the likelihood of significant misestimation of risk-weighted assets, which can lead to unjustifiably high or low solvency measures and induce false perceptions about banks' financial health. The proposed methodology is easy to replicate and suitable for various applications, including stress testing and calibration of macroprudential tools. After the methodology is introduced, we show how our proposed approach compares favourably to the methods typically used. Subsequently, we use our approach to estimate the potential increase in risk weights due to a cyclical deterioration in credit parameters and the corresponding setup of the countercyclical capital buffer for the Czech banking sector. Finally, an illustrative, hands-on example is provided in the Appendix.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Sveda & Jiri Panos & Vojtech Siuda, 2023. "Modelling Risk-Weighted Assets: Looking Beyond Stress Tests," Working Papers 2023/15, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2023/15
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2023_15.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miroslav Plašil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlaváč, 2016. "A New Measure of the Financial Cycle: Application to the Czech Republic," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 296-318, July.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Marco Gross & Javier Población, 2019. "Implications of Model Uncertainty for Bank Stress Testing," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 31-58, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Countercyclical capital buffer; credit portfolio structure; risk weighted exposure; stress-testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other

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