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Setting the Stage for RMB Internationalisation - Liberalizing the Capital Account and Strengthening the Domestic Bond Market

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  • Michel Aglietta
  • Camille Macaire

Abstract

Internationalizing the Renminbi pertains to the new era of China’s reform, starting at the 19th Congress of the Communist Party. It is not a technical reform, but a political one. The objective is threefold: to match China’s autonomy in economic policy, to further Asian integration, and to safeguard worldwide multilateralism against by the rise of protectionist forces. The challenge has been aggravated by the protectionist policies pursued by the US, degrading ipso facto the functions assumed by the dollar in the international payment system. China’s authorities have drawn lessons from the Asian crisis of 1997-98 and the systemic crisis of 2008-09. They are now searching for a second-best option in advocating a multilateral international payment system based on the SDR. The process of currency internationalization is linked to the modernization of domestic capital markets. Studying the progress in both dimensions makes the first two parts of the paper We ask the following questions. In the first part: which steps has China taken, and should take in the future, to complete the gradual process of currency internationalization currently under way? In the second part: how can China build the deep and resilient bond market required to attract international investors? A shorter third part examines why emerging market countries are incentivized to issue their government debt in their own currencies to attract foreign investors in the lingering context of ultra-low interest rates in the main convertible currencies. The status of a freely usable currency, already reached by the Renminbi in its prudent internationalization, together with a reform of the huge domestic bond market, should make China able to attract foreign saving. This is compatible with the Belt and Road Initiative, which is bound to mobilize massive capital exports in the form of long-term loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Camille Macaire, 2019. "Setting the Stage for RMB Internationalisation - Liberalizing the Capital Account and Strengthening the Domestic Bond Market," CEPII Policy Brief 2019-28, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepipb:2019-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Waikei R Lam & Jingsen Wang, 2018. "China's Local Government Bond Market," IMF Working Papers 2018/219, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Zhang, Jingyi, 2021. "Optimal capital account liberalization in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1041-1061.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Gullapalli, Rachita & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "Capital account liberalization, financial development and industry growth: A synthetic view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1090-1106, October.
    4. Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2018. "Intergovernmental Fiscal Reform in China," IMF Working Papers 2018/088, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. "Meeting Asia's Infrastructure Needs," Working Papers id:11711, eSocialSciences.
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    Cited by:

    1. Macaire, Camille & Naef, Alain, 2021. "Impact of Green Central Bank Collateral Policy: Evidence from the People’s Bank of China," SocArXiv cmwpn, Center for Open Science.
    2. Camille Macaire & Alain Naef, 2023. "Greening monetary policy: evidence from the People’s Bank of China," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 138-149, January.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Macaire, Camille & Mehl, Arnaud & Monnet, Eric & Naef, Alain, 2022. "Is Capital Account Convertibility Required for the Renminbi to Acquire Reserve Currency Status?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Bond Markets; Local Governments; RMB Internationalization; International Monetary System;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

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