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Do Security Analysts Speak In Two Tongues?

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  • Malmendier, Ulrike
  • Shanthikumar, Devin M.

Abstract

Why do security analysts issue overly positive recommendations? We propose a novel empirical strategy to assess the relative importance of the leading explanations: strategic distortion, which reflects incentives to trigger small-investor purchases and please management, and non-strategic distortion, which reflects genuine over-optimism, due to self-selection or credulity. We exploit the concurrent issuance of recommendations and earnings forecasts by the same analyst to distinguish those motivations. While non-strategic distorters express their positive view both in recommendations and in forecasts, strategic distorters issue overly positive recommendations but slightly more negative (“beatable”) forecasts. We find that affiliated analysts who have the most positive recommendations outstanding make the most negative forecasts. The same does not hold for unaffiliated analysts. Affiliated analysts are also more likely to distort forecasts downwards just before earnings announcements, allowing management to beat the forecast. Our findings indicate widespread strategic distortion, though the heterogeneity across analysts is large. We show that strategic distortion is persistent within individual analysts, with potential forensic implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Malmendier, Ulrike & Shanthikumar, Devin M., 2009. "Do Security Analysts Speak In Two Tongues?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15r9k25g, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt15r9k25g
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent P. Crawford & Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Nagore Iriberri, 2013. "Structural Models of Nonequilibrium Strategic Thinking: Theory, Evidence, and Applications," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 5-62, March.
    2. Vincent P. Crawford & Miguel A. Costa-Gomes & Nagore Iriberri, 2010. "Strategic Thinking," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000001148, David K. Levine.
    3. Haresh Sapra, 2010. "Discussion of Expected Mispricing: The Joint Influence of Accounting Transparency and Investor Base," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 383-391, May.
    4. Andreas Höfer & Andreas Oehler, 2014. "Analyst Recommendations and Regulation: Scopes for European Policy Makers to Enhance Investor Protection," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(4), pages 369-384, November.
    5. Kristóf Madarász, 2015. "Projection Equilibrium: Definition and Applications to Social Investment and Persuasion," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /2015/566, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    6. Ergungor, Ozgur E. & Madureira, Leonardo & Nayar, Nandkumar & Singh, Ajai K., 2015. "Lending relationships and analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-88.
    7. Chan, Jesse & Lin, Steve & Yu, Yong & Zhao, Wuyang, 2018. "Analysts’ stock ownership and stock recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 476-498.
    8. Bradley, Daniel & Clarke, Jonathan & Cooney, John, 2012. "The impact of reputation on analysts’ conflicts of interest: Hot versus cold markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2190-2202.
    9. O. Emre Ergungor & Leonardo Madureira & Nandkumar Nayar & Ajai K. Singh, 2011. "Banking relationships and sell-side research," Working Papers (Old Series) 1114, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. repec:cep:stitep:566 is not listed on IDEAS

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