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A Quality-Preserving Increase in Four-Year College Attendance

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  • Robert B. Archibald
  • David H. Feldman
  • Peter McHenry

Abstract

We use the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 and the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 data sets to evaluate changes in the college matching process. Rising attendance rates at 4-year institutions have not decreased average preparedness of college goers or of college graduates, and further attendance gains are possible before diminishing returns set in. We use multinomial logit models to demonstrate that measures of likely success (grade point average) became more predictive of college attendance over time, while other student characteristics such as race and parents' education became less predictive. Our evidence suggests that schools have become better at sorting while students have efficiently responded to changes in the return to higher education.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Archibald & David H. Feldman & Peter McHenry, 2015. "A Quality-Preserving Increase in Four-Year College Attendance," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 265-297.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/682355
    DOI: 10.1086/682355
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    Cited by:

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    2. Leslie S. Stratton & Nabanita Datta Gupta & David Reimer & Anders Holm, 2017. "Modeling Enrollment in and Completion of Vocational Education: The Role of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skills by Program Type," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20172, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    3. Jeffrey T. Denning & Eric R. Eide & Kevin J. Mumford & Richard W. Patterson & Merrill Warnick, 2022. "Why Have College Completion Rates Increased?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 1-29, July.
    4. Saltiel, Fernando, 2020. "Gritting it out: The importance of non-cognitive skills in academic mismatch," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Wolcott, Erin L., 2021. "Employment inequality: Why do the low-skilled work less now?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 161-177.
    6. Stratton Leslie S. & Datta Gupta Nabanita & Reimer David & Holm Anders, 2018. "Modeling Completion of Vocational Education: The Role of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills by Program Type," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-17, October.

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