Author
Listed:
- Naohiro Ogawa
(Asian Development Bank Institute, University of Tokyo, and University of Malaya)
- Norma Mansor
(University of Malaya)
- Sang-Hyop Lee
(University of Hawaii at Manoa, and East-West Center)
- Michael R.M. Abrigo
(Philippine Institute for Development Studies)
- Tahir Aris
(Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health)
Abstract
The present study first examines the trends in age structural shifts in selected Asian economies over the period 1950–2050 and analyzes their impact on economic growth in terms of the first and second demographic dividends computed from the system of National Transfer Accounts. Then, using the National Transfer Accounts, we analyze the effect of the age structural shifts on the pattern of intergenerational transfers in Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China. A brief comparison of the results reveals that, in the next few decades, the latter two are likely to follow in Japan's footsteps by increasing public transfers and asset reallocations, and by reducing familial transfers, particularly among older persons. Next, we consider a newly defined demographic dividend, which is generated through the use of the untapped work capacity of healthy older persons and to which we refer as “the silver†or “the third†demographic dividend. By drawing upon microlevel datasets obtained from Japan and Malaysia, we calculate the magnitude of the impact of that dividend on macroeconomic growth in each of the two economies, concluding that while in Japan the expected effect is substantial, in Malaysia it will take several decades before the country can enjoy comparable benefits.
Suggested Citation
Naohiro Ogawa & Norma Mansor & Sang-Hyop Lee & Michael R.M. Abrigo & Tahir Aris, 2021.
"Population Aging and the Three Demographic Dividends in Asia,"
Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 38(1), pages 32-67, March.
Handle:
RePEc:tpr:adbadr:v:38:y:2021:i:1:p:32-67
DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00157
Download full text from publisher
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:adbadr:v:38:y:2021:i:1:p:32-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.