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Modelling demand and supply influences on utilization: A flow demand model to predict hospital utilization at the small area level

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  • Monica Oliveira

Abstract

This study outlines a model to predict hospital utilization at the small area level within a National Health Service (NHS) institutional context. The proposed approach departs from alternative analyses based on utilization flows of hospital care between a local population and a hospital. A flow demand model is outlined that relates flow demand to utilization flows; models the interaction between hospital supply and utilization of alternative hospitals; captures the process of demand for hospital care, with special attention given to the role of other health care sectors, to the organizational and institutional context of the hospital system and to geographic variations. The flow approach partly overcomes the problem of dealing with simultaneity of determination between supply and demand. A two-part econometric model suitable to estimate the flow demand model for prediction purposes is tested and applied to the Portuguese health care system. The results show the model to be robust and to provide key information for defining future hospital policies at the central level.

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  • Monica Oliveira, 2004. "Modelling demand and supply influences on utilization: A flow demand model to predict hospital utilization at the small area level," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(20), pages 2237-2251.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:20:p:2237-2251
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000280553
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Jones & Jessica Wardlaw & Susan Crouch & Michelle Carolan, 2011. "Modelling catchment areas for secondary care providers: a case study," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 253-261, September.
    2. Johnathan Munn & Caroliniana Padgett, 2015. "The effects of agglomeration on interregional hospital patient flow," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 412-430, April.
    3. Nan Jiang & Gail Pacheco, 2014. "Demand in New Zealand hospitals: expect the unexpected?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(36), pages 4475-4489, December.
    4. Gerald Manthalu, 2019. "User fee exemption and maternal health care utilisation at mission health facilities in Malawi: An application of disequilibrium theory of demand and supply," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 461-474, April.
    5. Tetsuji Yamada & Chia-Ching Chen & Chiyoe Murata & Hiroshi Hirai & Toshiyuki Ojima & Katsunori Kondo & Joseph R. Harris III, 2015. "Access Disparity and Health Inequality of the Elderly: Unmet Needs and Delayed Healthcare," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-28, February.

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