IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v30y1998i3p415-425.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammed Islam

Abstract

This paper develops a multivariate error-correction model to test the causality between exports and growth in 15 Asian countries, 1967-91. The underlying series are tested as non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differences. The causal factors are cointegrated in five of these countries only. Causality test results indicate that export expansion causes growth in two-third of these countries, corrected for simultaneity between the causal factors. A country with a large public sector, higher level of economic development, and which is less vulnerable to external economic shocks is more likely to reap the benefits of export promotion strategies. The causal inferences are fairly stable over the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammed Islam, 1998. "Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 415-425.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:3:p:415-425
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498325930
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368498325930
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/000368498325930?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Export growth and Canadian economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 133-145, January.
    2. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
    3. Moschos, Demetrios, 1989. "Export expansion, growth and the level of economic development: An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 93-102, January.
    4. Muhammed N. Islam & Saud A. Choudhury, 1990. "Testing the Exogeneity of Grants to Local Governments," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 676-692, August.
    5. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    6. Fajana, Olufemi, 1979. "Trade and growth: The Nigerian experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-78, January.
    7. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-184, February.
    8. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    9. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    10. Kunst, Robert M & Marin, Dalia, 1989. "On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 699-703, November.
    11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    12. Balassa, Bela, 1988. "The Lessons of East Asian Development: An Overview," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(3), pages 273-290, Supplemen.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    14. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    15. Charette, Michael F., 1985. "Determinants of export instability in the primary commodity trade of LDC's," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 13-21.
    16. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
    17. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: A synopsis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 395-400, August.
    18. Lee, Chung H & Naya, Seiji, 1988. "Trade in East Asian Development with Comparative Reference to Southeast Asian Experiences," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(3), pages 123-152, Supplemen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asmawi Hashim & Norimah Rambeli & Norasibah Abdul Jalil & Normala Zulkifli & Emilda Hashim & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim, 2019. "Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(5), pages 9-19, December.
    2. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    3. Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2003. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)," Working Papers 2003004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    4. Aurangzeb, 2003. "Trade, Investment and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: An Application of Cointegration and Multivariate Causality Test," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 119-137, Jan-June.
    5. AKBAR Mohammad & NAQVI Zareen Fatima, 2010. "Are Exports an Engine of Growth in Pakistan?," EcoMod2003 330700004, EcoMod.
    6. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    7. Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1679-1686.
    8. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    9. Fadzil, Atikah & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does export lead growth? evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 109290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ahmed, Osama & Sallam, Walid, 2018. "Studying the volatility effect of agricultural exports on agriculture share of GDP: The case of Egypt," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(8), pages 345-352.
    11. Chien-Chung Nieh, 2002. "The effect of the Asian financial crisis on the relationships among open macroeconomic factors for Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 491-502.
    12. Olajide S. Oladipo, 2017. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 322, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    13. George K. Zestos & Xiangnan Tao, 2002. "Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(4), pages 859-874, April.
    14. M.A.B. Siddique & E.A. Selvanathan, 1999. "Export Performance and Economic Growth: Co-integration and causality analysis for Malaysia, 1966-96," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 99-13, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2017. "The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 661-689, October.
    16. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2016. "New evidence on the Export-led-growth hypothesis in the Southern Euro-zone countries (1960-2014)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 429-439.
    17. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    18. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Onafowora, Olugbenga A. & Owoye, Oluwole, 1998. "Can Trade Liberalization Stimulate Economic Growth in Africa?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 497-506, March.
    20. Khalafalla, Khalid Yousif & Webb, Alan J., 2000. "Exports And Economic Growth Under Structural Change: A Co-Integration Analysis Of Evidence From Malaysia," Working Papers 14595, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:3:p:415-425. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.