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The long-term effect of the Great Recession on European mortality

Author

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  • Giambattista Salinari

    (University of Sassari)

  • Federico Benassi

    (Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT))

Abstract

Some European countries, such as Greece and Spain, were severely hit by the 2008 economic crisis whereas others, such as Germany, were practically spared by it. This divergence allowed us to implement a difference in differences research design which offered the possibility to observe the long-lasting effects produced by the crisis on European life expectancy. Our analysis—based on Eurostat data from 2001 to 2019—shows that life expectancy increased faster, after the onset of the crisis, in those countries where the rise in unemployment was more intense. Furthermore, our results show that this gain in life expectancy persisted, and sometimes further increased, until 2019 when most macro-economic variables had returned to their pre-crisis values. Previous research has identified that mortality behaves procyclically in developed countries: when the economy slows down mortality decreases and vice versa. Our findings show, by contrast, that life expectancy behaves asymmetrically: it responded to an increase but not to a decrease in unemployment. This calls for a reconsideration of the causal mechanisms linking together the economic cycle and mortality in developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Giambattista Salinari & Federico Benassi, 2022. "The long-term effect of the Great Recession on European mortality," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 417-439, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:39:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s12546-022-09290-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-022-09290-8
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    1. Piiroinen, Ilkka & Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka & Tolmunen, Tommi & Kraav, Siiri-Liisi & Jarroch, Rand & Voutilainen, Ari, 2023. "Change in sense of coherence mediates the association between economic recession and mortality among middle-aged men: A population-based cohort study from Eastern Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    2. Giambattista Salinari & Federico Benassi & Gianni Carboni, 2023. "The Effect of the Great Recession on Italian Life Expectancy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Gianni Carboni, 2023. "The effect of great recession on european lifespan inequality (Best Young Researcher Paper 2023)," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 77(4), pages 191-202, October-D.

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