IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/anresc/v70y2023i2d10.1007_s00168-022-01153-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land value dynamics and the spatial evolution of cities following COVID 19 using big data analytics

Author

Listed:
  • Erez Buda

    (Technion – Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Dani Broitman

    (Technion – Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Daniel Czamanski

    (Rupin Academic Center)

Abstract

In this paper, we present results of a land-use forecasting model that we calibrated with vast geo-referenced data of a major metropolitan area. Each land parcel includes information concerning regulations indicating permitted land-uses as well as the certain characteristics of existing buildings. Data concerning all real estate transactions include information about the assets and the price of the exchanges. Based on these data we estimated the spatial dynamics of land values in the metropolitan area over time and identified locations experiencing development pressures. This analysis allows us to forecast plausible futures of the urban spatial configuration. Taking the approach one step further, we propose simulations motivated by the natural experiment of COVID 19. We assumed that part of the behavioral changes observed during the pandemic will endure. The resulting simulations provide forecasts of the future spatial structure of the metropolitan area. Comparing the actual and the forecasted scenarios we interpret the spatial dynamics of the city as they would be if a business-as-usual-pre-Covid-19 scenario is realized, and possible trend changes if the impact of the pandemic is long lasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Erez Buda & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2023. "Land value dynamics and the spatial evolution of cities following COVID 19 using big data analytics," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 70(2), pages 429-445, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:70:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-022-01153-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01153-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00168-022-01153-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00168-022-01153-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Czamanski, Daniel & Broitman, Dani, 2017. "Information and communication technology and the spatial evolution of mature cities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 30-38.
    2. Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2015. "Bursts and Avalanches: The Dynamics of Polycentric Urban Evolution," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(1), pages 58-75, February.
    3. Davis, Morris A. & Larson, William D. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Shui, Jessica, 2021. "The price of residential land for counties, ZIP codes, and census tracts in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 413-431.
    4. Behrens, Kristian & Kichko, Sergei & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 2024. "Working from home: Too much of a good thing?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. J. Barkley Rosser, 2014. "The foundations of economic complexity in behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 308-312, September.
    6. L. Benguigui & D. Czamanski & M. Marinov, 2004. "Scaling And Urban Growth," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(07), pages 989-996.
    7. Lucien Benguigui & Daniel Czamanski & Maria Marinov & Yuval Portugali, 2000. "When and Where is a City Fractal?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 27(4), pages 507-519, August.
    8. Lucien Benguigui & Daniel Czamanski & Maria Marinov, 2001. "City Growth as a Leap-frogging Process: An Application to the Tel-Aviv Metropolis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 38(10), pages 1819-1839, September.
    9. Duque,Juan Carlos & Lozano Gracia,Nancy & Patino,Jorge E. & Restrepo Cadavid,Paula & Velasquez,Wilson A., 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Growth in Latin American Cities : An Analysis Using Nighttime Lights Imagery," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8702, The World Bank.
    10. Daniel Czamanski & Dani Broitman, 2012. "Developers’ choices under varying characteristic time and competition among municipalities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 733-743, December.
    11. Dani Broitman & Itzhak Benenson & Daniel Czamanski, 2020. "The Impact of Migration and Innovations on the Life Cycles and Size Distribution of Cities," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(5), pages 531-549, September.
    12. George Chorafakis, 2020. "Emergence versus neoclassical reductions in economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 240-262, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2012. "Cities in Competition, Characteristic Time, and Leapfrogging Developers," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(6), pages 1105-1118, December.
    2. Czamanski, Daniel & Broitman, Dani, 2017. "Information and communication technology and the spatial evolution of mature cities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 30-38.
    3. Dani Broitman & Vladimir Griskin & Daniel Czamanski, 2019. "Unbundling negative and positive externalities of nature in cities: The influence of wild animals on housing prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(13), pages 2820-2836, October.
    4. Erez Buda & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2021. "Urban Structure in Troubled Times: The Evolution of Principal and Secondary Core/Periphery Gaps through the Prism of Residential Land Values," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-12, May.
    5. Luca Salvati, 2022. "Exploring long-term urban cycles with multivariate time-series analysis," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 49(4), pages 1212-1227, May.
    6. Jian Feng & Yanguang Chen, 2021. "Modeling Urban Growth and Socio-Spatial Dynamics of Hangzhou, China: 1964–2010," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, January.
    7. Lucien Benguigui & Efrat Blumenfeld-Lieberthal & Daniel Czamanski, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Tel Aviv Morphology," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 33(2), pages 269-284, April.
    8. Nataliya Rybnikova & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2023. "Initial signs of post-covid-19 physical structures of cities in Israel," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Lucien Benguigui & Daniel Czamanski & Maria Marinov, 2001. "The Dynamics of Urban Morphology: The Case of Petah Tikvah," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 28(3), pages 447-460, June.
    10. Marina Toger & Dan Malkinson & Itzhak Benenson & Daniel Czamanski, 2016. "The connectivity of Haifa urban open space network," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 43(5), pages 848-870, September.
    11. Daniel Czamanski & Rafael Roth, 2011. "Characteristic time, developers’ behavior and leapfrogging dynamics of high-rise buildings," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 46(1), pages 101-118, February.
    12. Chen, Yanguang, 2012. "Fractal dimension evolution and spatial replacement dynamics of urban growth," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 115-124.
    13. Chen, Yanguang & Huang, Linshan, 2019. "Modeling growth curve of fractal dimension of urban form of Beijing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1038-1056.
    14. Jian Feng & Yanguang Chen, 2010. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Form and Land-Use Structure in Hangzhou, China: Evidence from Fractals," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 37(5), pages 838-856, October.
    15. Lishan Xiao & Peiqi Shi & Tong Lin & Ning Chen & Sha Huang, 2021. "Rural Morphology and Forces Driving Change in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas: A Case Study in Fujian, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-15, April.
    16. Lucien Benguigui & Daniel Czamanski & Rafael Roth, 2008. "Modeling Cities in 3D: A Cellular Automaton Approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(3), pages 413-430, June.
    17. Chen, Yanguang, 2014. "Multifractals of central place systems: Models, dimension spectrums, and empirical analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 266-282.
    18. de Palma, André & Vosough, Shaghayegh & Liao, Feixiong, 2022. "An overview of effects of COVID-19 on mobility and lifestyle: 18 months since the outbreak," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 372-397.
    19. Rutger-Jan Lange & Coen N. Teulings, 2021. "The option value of vacant land: Don't build when demand for housing is booming," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-022/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Bo Liu & Desheng Xue & Yiming Tan, 2019. "Deciphering the Manufacturing Production Space in Global City-Regions of Developing Countries—a Case of Pearl River Delta, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-26, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:70:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-022-01153-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.