IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/scn/00rbes/y2018i1p17-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Разве стоимость компании действительно зависит от средневзвешенной стоимости капитала и свободного денежного потока? Свидетельства иррациональности в нефтегазовом секторе // Does Enterprise Value Really Depend on WACC and Free Cash Flow? The Evidence of Irrationality from the Oil and Gas Sector

Author

Listed:
  • P. Zhukov E.

    (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation)

  • П. Жуков Е.

    (Финансовый университет)

Abstract

The main objective is to check whether traditional DCF model, based on stable rational expectations for cash flows and discount rates really works in an intermediate term-from a quarter to three years. The sample was formed from six major companies of oil and gas sector. The main conclusions are-changes of enterprise value are independent of the changes WACC, free cash flow, and operating cash flows. This may be explained by the impossibility to make durable assessment neither for expected cash flow nor for the discount rate, which in fact means failure of strongly rational models like CAPM or MM. To handle out this implied irrationality the new model proposed, based on the stochastic cost of capital, which follows the model of generalized method of moments by J. Cochrane. Основная задача статьи - проверка, действительно ли традиционная модель DCF (Discounted Cash Flow - модель дисконтированных денежных потоков), основанная на стабильных рациональных ожиданиях денежных потоков и ставок дисконтирования, работает в промежуточном периоде - от квартала до трех лет. Выборка была сформирована из шести крупных компаний нефтегазового сектора. Основные выводы - изменения стоимости предприятия не зависят от изменения средневзвешенной стоимости капитала, свободного денежного потока и текущего денежного потока. Это может быть объяснено невозможностью осуществления долговременной оценки ни ожидаемых денежных потоков, ни учетной ставки, что фактически означает несостоятельность строго рациональных моделей САРМ (Capital Asset Pricing Model - Модель оценки долгосрочных активов) или ММ (Market Model). В статье предлагается учесть подразумеваемую иррациональность в новой модели, базирующейся на стохастической стоимости капитала, связанной с моделью обобщенного метода моментов J. Cochrane (ОММ; англ. GMM - Generalized Method of Moments).

Suggested Citation

  • P. Zhukov E. & П. Жуков Е., 2018. "Разве стоимость компании действительно зависит от средневзвешенной стоимости капитала и свободного денежного потока? Свидетельства иррациональности в нефтегазовом секторе // Does Enterprise Value Real," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 6(1), pages 17-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:00rbes:y:2018:i:1:p:17-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rbes.fa.ru/jour/article/viewFile/77/77.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, April.
    3. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Margin-based Asset Pricing and Deviations from the Law of One Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1980-2022.
    4. John H. Cochrane, 2014. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 1-49, February.
    5. Peter Brusov & Tatiana Filatova & Natali Orehova & Nastia Brusova, 2011. "Weighted average cost of capital in the theory of Modigliani-Miller, modified for a finite lifetime company," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(11), pages 815-824.
    6. John R. Graham & Mark T. Leary, 2011. "A Review of Empirical Capital Structure Research and Directions for the Future," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 309-345, December.
    7. Eugene F. Fama, 2002. "Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 1-33, March.
    8. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    9. Chen, Jie & Hill, Paula, 2013. "The impact of diverse measures of default risk on UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5118-5131.
    10. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
    11. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2006. "The Value Premium and the CAPM," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2163-2185, October.
    12. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G.J., 2008. "On the pricing of intermediated risks: Theory and application to catastrophe reinsurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 69-85, January.
    13. Denzler, Stefan M. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & McNeil, Alexander J., 2006. "From default probabilities to credit spreads: Credit risk models do explain market prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 79-95, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2017. "Capital structure adjustments: Do macroeconomic and business risks matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1463-1502, December.
    2. Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2010. "The response of firms' leverage to uncertainty: Evidence from UK public versus non-public firms," Working Papers 2010019, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    3. Danis, András & Rettl, Daniel A. & Whited, Toni M., 2014. "Refinancing, profitability, and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 424-443.
    4. Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2014. "The Response Of Firms' Leverage To Risk: Evidence From Uk Public Versus Nonpublic Manufacturing Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 341-363, January.
    5. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    6. Stefan Dierkes & Imke de Maeyer, 2020. "Valuation with mixed financing strategies," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 13(3), pages 1317-1341, November.
    7. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lotfaliei, Babak, 2018. "The variance risk premium and capital structure," ESRB Working Paper Series 70, European Systemic Risk Board.
    9. Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2016. "Risks for the long run: Estimation with time aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-69.
    10. Xu Cheng & Winston Wei Dou & Zhipeng Liao, 2022. "Macro‐Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 685-713, March.
    11. Ralf Diedrich & Stefan Dierkes & Hans-Christian Gröger, 2022. "A note on the cost of capital with fixed payout ratios," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1559-1575, November.
    12. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    13. Lin, Shannon & Tong, Naqiong & Tucker, Alan L., 2014. "Corporate tax aggression and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    14. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Ma, Sai, 2015. "Capital Share Risk and Shareholder Heterogeneity in U.S. Stock Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 10335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.
    16. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2020. "Macroeconomic disasters and the equity premium puzzle: Are emerging countries riskier?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
    18. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Vrugt, Evert B., 2018. "Carry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 197-225.
      • Moskowitz, Tobias J & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert B., 2013. "Carry," CEPR Discussion Papers 9771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    20. Xiaohong Chen & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2009. "Land of addicts? an empirical investigation of habit-based asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1057-1093.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scn:00rbes:y:2018:i:1:p:17-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Алексей Скалабан (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://rbes.fa.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.