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A workable strategy for COVID-19 testing: stratified periodic testing rather than universal random testing

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Cleevely
  • Daniel Susskind
  • David Vines
  • Louis Vines
  • Samuel Wills

Abstract

This paper argues for the regular testing of people in groups that are more likely to be exposed to SARS-CoV-2, to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and resume economic activity. We call this ‘stratified periodic testing’. It is ‘stratified’ as it is based on at-risk groups, and ‘periodic’ as everyone in the group is tested at regular intervals. We argue that this is a better use of scarce testing resources than ‘universal random testing’, as has been recently discussed globally. We find that, under reasonable assumptions and allowing for false negative results 30 per cent of the time, 17 per cent of a subgroup would need to be tested each day to lower the effective reproduction number R from 2.5 to 0.75, under stratified periodic testing. Using the same assumptions the universal random testing rate would need to be 27 per cent (as opposed to 7 per cent as argued by Romer (2020b)). We obtain this rate of testing using a corrected method for calculating the impact of an infectious person on others, and allowing for asymptomatic cases. We also find that the effect of one day’s delay between testing positive and self-isolating is similar to having a test that is 30 per cent less accurate.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Cleevely & Daniel Susskind & David Vines & Louis Vines & Samuel Wills, 2020. "A workable strategy for COVID-19 testing: stratified periodic testing rather than universal random testing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 14-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:36:y:2020:i:supplement_1:p:s14-s37.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/graa029
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    2. Broughel, James & Kotrous, Michael, 2020. "The Benefits of Coronavirus Suppression: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Response to the First Wave of COVID-19," Working Papers 10632, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
    3. Ely, Jeffrey & Galeotti, Andrea & Jann, Ole & Steiner, Jakub, 2021. "Optimal test allocation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Anna Kristina Witte & Janina Grosch & Beate Conrady & Lena Schomakers & Marcus Grohmann, 2022. "Free PoC Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in Germany: Factors Expanding Access to Various Communities in a Medium-Sized City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Galiani, Sebastian, 2022. "Pandemic economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 269-275.
    6. Eslami, Keyvan & Lee, Hyunju, 2024. "Overreaction and the value of information in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    7. Scott Duke Kominers & Alex Tabarrok, 2022. "Vaccines and the Covid-19 pandemic: lessons from failure and success," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 719-741.
    8. Cameron Hepburn & Brian O’Callaghan & Nicholas Stern & Joseph Stiglitz & Dimitri Zenghelis, 2020. "Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 359-381.
    9. de Mello-Sampayo, F.;, 2024. "Uncertainty in Healthcare Policy Decisions: An Epidemiological Real Options Approach to COVID-19 Lockdown Exits," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 24/01, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

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