IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nbb/ecrart/y2015mdecemberiiiip47-65.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans

Author

Listed:
  • B. De Backer

    (National Bank of Belgium)

  • Ph. Du Caju

    (National Bank of Belgium)

  • M. Emiris

    (National Bank of Belgium)

  • Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze

    (National Bank of Belgium)

Abstract

The article analyses the credit risk in Belgium on the basis of bank asset quality indicators (i.e. nonperformingloans, NPLs) and Central Credit Register data (i.e. payment arrears). These indicators show a relatively high asset quality in Belgium notwithstanding the further increase of the debt ratio of the non-financial private sector over the last years. Moreover, the distribution of households’ assets and debt reveals some ‘pockets of risk’ as a significant proportion of households spend a large part of their income on debt payments and that part of outstanding debt is not well covered by financial assets. Against this background, the article aims to explain the variation in (mortgage) credit risk by means of both macroeconomic and structural determinants such as the business cycle and loan or bank characteristics. The findings show a clear link between macroprudential instruments – such as the debt-service-to-income (DSTI) ratio – and the probability of default (PD). Econometric results confirm that both structural and macroeconomic variables explain the variation in default rates on mortgage loans. Finally, there seems to be a feedback effect of NPLs on macroeconomic conditions in countries where the NPL ratio is high. While a deleveraging process and a reduction in the nonfinancial private sector’s interest charges could help to reduce the NPL stock, additional structural reforms in those countries might be needed.

Suggested Citation

  • B. De Backer & Ph. Du Caju & M. Emiris & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2015. "Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 47-65, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:ecrart:y:2015:m:december:i:iii:p:47-65
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/en/node/355176
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ph. Du Caju & Th. Roelandt & Chr. Van Nieuwenhuyze & M.-D. Zachary, 2014. "Household debt: evolution and distribution," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 61-81, September.
    2. Stijn Ferrari & Patrick Van Roy & Cristina Vespro, 2011. "Stress testing credit risk: modelling issues," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 9(1), pages 105-120, June.
    3. Anil K Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 565-592.
    4. J. Boeckx & P. Butzen & N. Cordemans & S. Ide, 2015. "Deflation in Japan, Abenomics and lessons for the euro area," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 100-124, June.
    5. Nobuo Inaba & Takashi Kozu & Toshitaka Sekine & Takashi Nagahata, 2005. "Non-performing loans and the real economy: Japan’s experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 106-27, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    7. Ph. Du Caju, 2013. "Structure and distribution of household wealth: An analysis based on the HFCS," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 41-62, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ch. Piette & M.-D. Zachary, 2015. "Sensitivity to the crisis of SME financing in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 31-45, December.
    2. Philip Du Caju, 2017. "Pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market : Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS)," Working Paper Research 332, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Ph. Du Caju, 2016. "The distribution of household wealth in Belgium : initial findings of the second wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS)," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 27-43, september.
    4. Ruba Bsoul & Maysa’a Milhem & Mahmoud Odat, 2022. "Determinants of Banks’ Credit Risk: Evidence from Jordanian Banks Listed on Amman Stock Exchange," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 11, September.
    5. P. Reusens & Ch. Warisse, 2018. "House prices and economic growth in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 81-106, december.
    6. Philip Du Caju, 2017. "Pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market - Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption survey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1359, November.
    2. Philip Du Caju, 2017. "Pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market : Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS)," Working Paper Research 332, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Philip Du Caju, 2017. "Pockets of risk in the Belgian mortgage market - Evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption survey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Alessandra Canepa & Fawaz Khaled, 2018. "Housing, Housing Finance and Credit Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Kevin x.d. Huang & Jie Chen & Zhe Li & Jianfei Sun, 2014. "Financial Conditions and Slow Recoveries," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 14-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    6. Murinde, Victor & Zhao, Tianshu, 2009. "Bank competition, risk taking and productive efficiency: Evidence from Nigeria's banking reform experiments," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2009-23, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    7. Demir, Firat, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1127-1140, August.
    8. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    9. Björn Imbierowicz & Axel Löffler & Ursula Vogel, 2021. "The transmission of bank capital requirements and monetary policy to bank lending in Germany," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 144-164, February.
    10. Carmen Orden‐Cruz & Jessica Paule‐Vianez & Júlio Lobão, 2023. "The effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the credit risk of US commercial banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3420-3436, July.
    11. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajšek, 2000. "Microeconomic inventory adjustment: evidence from U.S. firm-level data," Staff Reports 101, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    13. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory (Dis)Investment, Internal Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle," Macroeconomics 9401001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(1), pages 177-213, March.
    15. Caggese, Andrea, 2007. "Testing financing constraints on firm investment using variable capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 683-723, December.
    16. Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Tarazi, Amine, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Size, capital, and liquidity matter," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 102-118.
    17. Bustos, Emil, 2023. "The Effect of Financial Constraints on Inventory Holdings," Working Paper Series 1463, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    18. Umoren A. A & Akpan S. B. & Udoh E. J., 2016. "Analysis of Empirical Relationship among Agricultural Lending, Agricultural Growth and Non-Performing Loans in Nigerian Banking System," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(2), pages 94-101.
    19. Kenneth A. Carow & Edward J. Kane & Rajesh P. Narayanan, 2005. "Winners and Losers from Enacting the Financial Modernization Statute," NBER Working Papers 11256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Erwan Morellec & Philip Valta & Alexei Zhdanov, 2015. "Financing Investment: The Choice Between Bonds and Bank Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(11), pages 2580-2602, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-performing loans; credit risk; debt distribution; macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbb:ecrart:y:2015:m:december:i:iii:p:47-65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bnbgvbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.