IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v25y2005i3p233-253.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Earnings Predictability, Bond Ratings, and Bond Yields

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron Crabtree
  • John Maher

Abstract

We examine the role that earnings predictability plays in establishing a firm’s cost of debt capital by measuring its influence on establishing a new issue’s bond rating. In addition, we also examine the effects of earnings predictability on the initial pricing of the firm’s debt. Using new corporate bond issues from the period 1990–2000, our results indicate that the degree of predictability of a firm’s earnings is positively associated with a firm’s bond rating. Moreover, earnings predictability is also documented to be negatively associated with the offering yield. Importantly, bond rating classification accuracy is improved when specific measures of a firm’s earnings predictability are added to a robust model. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Crabtree & John Maher, 2005. "Earnings Predictability, Bond Ratings, and Bond Yields," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 233-253, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:25:y:2005:i:3:p:233-253
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-005-4766-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-005-4766-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-005-4766-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence Fisher, 1959. "Determinants of Risk Premiums on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 217-217.
    2. Bradley, Michael & Jarrell, Gregg A & Kim, E Han, 1984. "On the Existence of an Optimal Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 857-878, July.
    3. William Kinney & David Burgstahler & Roger Martin, 2002. "Earnings Surprise “Materiality” as Measured by Stock Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 1297-1329, December.
    4. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    5. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
    6. Lamy, Robert E. & Thompson, G. Rodney, 1988. "Risk premia and the pricing of primary issue bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 585-601, December.
    7. Ron Kasznik & Maureen F. McNichols, 2002. "Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 727-759, June.
    8. Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A, 1973. "A Multivariate Analysis of Industrial Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    10. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    11. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 143-181, July.
    12. Maher, John J, 1996. "Perceptions of Postretirement Benefit Obligations by Bond Rating Analysts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 79-94, January.
    13. DeFond, Mark L. & Park, Chul W., 1997. "Smoothing income in anticipation of future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 115-139, July.
    14. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    15. Ilia D. Dichev & Joseph D. Piotroski, 2001. "The Long‐Run Stock Returns Following Bond Ratings Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 173-203, February.
    16. Imhoff, Eugene Jr., 1992. "The relation between perceived accounting quality and economic characteristics of the firm," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 97-118.
    17. Kasznik, R, 1999. "On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 57-81.
    18. Wayne R. Landsman & Edward L. Maydew, 2002. "Has the Information Content of Quarterly Earnings Announcements Declined in the Past Three Decades?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 797-808, June.
    19. Ederington, Louis H. & Goh, Jeremy C., 1998. "Bond Rating Agencies and Stock Analysts: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 569-585, December.
    20. Horrigan, Jo, 1966. "Determination Of Long-Term Credit Standing With Financial Ratios," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 44-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Semih Tartaroglu & Michael Imhof, 2017. "Insider trading and response to earnings announcements: the impact of accelerated disclosure requirements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 315-336, August.
    2. Mingzhi Liu & Michel Magnan, 2016. "Conditional conservatism and the yield spread of corporate bond issues," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 847-879, May.
    3. Katsuo, Yuko, 2008. "Earnings quality, accruals and subjective goodwill accounting," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6912, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Tsung-Kang Chen & Hsien-Hsing Liao & Hsiao-Chun Huang, 2014. "Macroeconomic risks of supply chain counterparties and corporate bond yield spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 463-481, October.
    5. Ting-Kai Chou, 2013. "Information content of credit ratings in pricing of future earnings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 217-250, February.
    6. Kenneth Lorek & G. Willinger & Allen Bathke, 2008. "Statistically based quarterly earnings expectation models for nonseasonal firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 105-119, July.
    7. Alex Petkevich & Andrew Prevost, 2018. "Managerial ability, information quality, and the design and pricing of corporate debt," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1033-1069, November.
    8. Kenneth Shaw, 2012. "CEO incentives and the cost of debt," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 323-346, April.
    9. Mohamed A. Elbannan, 2016. "Accounting Discretion and the Market Disciplining of Bank Risk-taking Behavior: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Egyptian Banking Reforms from an Accounting Perspective," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 1-1, November.
    10. Hang Luo & Linfeng Chen, 2019. "Bond yield and credit rating: evidence of Chinese local government financing vehicles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 737-758, April.
    11. Charlene P. Spiceland & Leo L. Yang & Joseph H. Zhang, 2016. "Accounting quality, debt covenant design, and the cost of debt," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1271-1302, November.
    12. Shikhil Munjal & Gurcharan Singh & Palvi Jearth, 2021. "Assessing the Consistency among Accounting Measures of Earnings Quality: A Study of Stocks Listed on National Stock Exchange 500," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 19-26.
    13. Mohammed Mehadi Masud Mazumder, 2016. "Exploring the Impact of Ownership Structure on Earnings Predictability: Insights from Japan," Indian Journal of Corporate Governance, , vol. 9(2), pages 97-121, December.
    14. Alan V. S. Douglas & Alan G. Huang & Kenneth R. Vetzal, 2016. "Cash flow volatility and corporate bond yield spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 417-458, February.
    15. Du, Ning & Budescu, David V. & Shelly, Marjorie K. & Omer, Thomas C., 2011. "The appeal of vague financial forecasts," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 179-189, March.
    16. Ferrer, Elena & Santamaría, Rafael & Suárez, Nuria, 2019. "Does analyst information influence the cost of debt? Some international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 323-342.
    17. Hong-Yi Chen & Hsiao-Yin Chen, 2016. "Inconsistent Bond Pricing in a Rational Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(03), pages 1-17, September.
    18. Melissa Woodley & Peter DaDalt & John R. Wingender, 2020. "The price and volume response to earnings announcements in the corporate bond market," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 669-696, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    2. Truong, Cameron & Corrado, Charles & Chen, Yangyang, 2012. "The options market response to accounting earnings announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-450.
    3. Chordia, Tarun & Miao, Bin, 2020. "Market efficiency in real time: Evidence from low latency activity around earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    4. Schaetzle, Dominik, 2011. "Ratingagenturen in der neoklassischen Finanzierungstheorie: Eine Auswertung empirischer Studien zum Informationsgehalt von Ratings," Arbeitspapiere 110, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.
    5. Perotti, Pietro, 2010. "Order aggressiveness as a metric to assess the usefulness of accounting information," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 306-333, September.
    6. Hyoung-Joo Lim & Dafydd Mali, 2024. "Does Market Performance (Tobin’s Q) Have A Negative Effect On Credit Ratings? Evidence From South Korea," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 53-80, March.
    7. Francois Lantin, 2008. "L'importance de la note initiale et du type de changement dans la mesure de l'impact de la notation financière (rating) sur le marché actions," Post-Print halshs-00692578, HAL.
    8. Brogaard, Jonathan & Koski, Jennifer L. & Siegel, Andrew F., 2019. "Do upgrades matter? Evidence from trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-77.
    9. Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Rodgers Cornaggia, Kimberly, 2013. "Initial credit ratings and earnings management," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 135-145.
    10. repec:uts:finphd:36 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    12. M. Lambert & G. Hübner & P.-A. Michel & H. Olivier, 2006. "International Financial Reporting Standards and Market Efficiency: A European Perspective," LSF Research Working Paper Series 06-04, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    13. Chamroeun Sok, 2012. "Corporate Credit Rating Announcements: Information Content of Rating Announcements Models: Evidence from the Australian Financial Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2012.
    14. Mohamed Sellami, 2006. "Typologie des déterminants comptables de la valeur : Apports de l'approche économique de l'information dans la mesure de la valeur," Post-Print halshs-00558252, HAL.
    15. Lawrence Brown & Kelly Huang & Arianna Pinello, 2013. "To beat or not to beat? The importance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 723-752, November.
    16. DeFond, Mark & Hung, Mingyi & Trezevant, Robert, 2007. "Investor protection and the information content of annual earnings announcements: International evidence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 37-67, March.
    17. Choi, Bong-Geun & Choi, Jung Ho & Malik, Sara, 2023. "Not just for investors: The role of earnings announcements in guiding job seekers," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1).
    18. Martin Wallmeier, 2009. "Kapitalmarktwirkungen der Berichterstattung zur Unternehmensleistung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 212-224, March.
    19. Schnaubelt, Matthias & Seifert, Oleg, 2020. "Valuation ratios, surprises, uncertainty or sentiment: How does financial machine learning predict returns from earnings announcements?," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2020, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    20. Landsman, Wayne R. & Maydew, Edward L. & Thornock, Jacob R., 2012. "The information content of annual earnings announcements and mandatory adoption of IFRS," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 34-54.
    21. Kajüter, Peter & Klassmann, Florian & Nienhaus, Martin, 2016. "Do Reviews by External Auditors Improve the Information Content of Interim Financial Statements?," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 23-50.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:25:y:2005:i:3:p:233-253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.