IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/pubcho/v189y2021i1d10.1007_s11127-020-00856-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cyclical accountability

Author

Listed:
  • Dieter Stiers

    (KU Leuven)

  • Anna Kern

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

A large body of literature has investigated vote and popularity functions, identifying the factors influencing presidential approval ratings or presidential votes. The studies have revealed a strong correlation between the state of the economy and incumbent support. However, so far, less attention has been paid to when voters relate their perceptions of the president’s performance to the real-world economy in a systematic way. While some research focuses on voters’ behavior on Election Day, other studies do not take electoral cycles into account. Hence, while politics often is assumed to follow a “political business cycle”, it is less clear whether voters follow the same logic in holding incumbents accountable for economic conditions. In this article, we offer a systematic study of the timing of accountability mechanisms in the domain of the economy. The analyses show strong patterns of accountability throughout the electoral cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieter Stiers & Anna Kern, 2021. "Cyclical accountability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 31-49, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:189:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-020-00856-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-020-00856-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11127-020-00856-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11127-020-00856-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yukihiro Yazaki, 2017. "Newspapers and political accountability: evidence from Japan," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 311-331, September.
    2. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    3. MacKuen, Michael B. & Erikson, Robert S. & Stimson, James A., 1992. "Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 597-611, September.
    4. Andersen, Robert & Tilley, James & Heath, Anthony F., 2005. "Political Knowledge and Enlightened Preferences: Party Choice Through the Electoral Cycle," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 285-302, April.
    5. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    6. Marcus Drometer & Romuald Méango, 2020. "Electoral cycles, partisan effects and US naturalization policies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 183(1), pages 43-68, April.
    7. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    8. Douglas Hibbs, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 149-180, July.
    9. Marta Curto-Grau, 2017. "Voters’ responsiveness to public employment policies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 143-169, January.
    10. Oleg Sidorkin & Dmitriy Vorobyev, 2020. "Extra votes to signal loyalty: regional political cycles and national elections in Russia," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 183-213, October.
    11. Tufte, Edward R., 1975. "Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 812-826, September.
    12. Frank Bohn & Francisco José Veiga, 2019. "Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 429-449, September.
    13. Will Jennings & Christopher Wlezien, 2018. "Election polling errors across time and space," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 276-283, April.
    14. Amy C. Alexander & Andreas Bågenholm & Nicholas Charron, 2020. "Are women more likely to throw the rascals out? The mobilizing effect of social service spending on female voters," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(3), pages 235-261, September.
    15. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404, November.
    16. Ostrom, Charles W. & Simon, Dennis M., 1985. "Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 334-358, June.
    17. Kernell, Samuel, 1977. "Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting: An Alternative Explanation of the Midterm Congressional Decline of the President's Party," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 44-66, March.
    18. Dirk Foremny & Ronny Freier & Marc-Daniel Moessinger & Mustafa Yeter, 2018. "Overlapping political budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-27, October.
    19. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Marios & María Dolores, 2024. "Identifying the economic determinants of individual voting behaviour in UK general elections," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 267-289.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    2. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.
    3. Martin Okolikj & Stephen Quinlan, 2016. "Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 145-166.
    4. Arnesen, Sveinung, 2012. "Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 789-796.
    5. Herrera, Helios & Konradt, Maximilian & Ordoñez, Guillermo & Trebesch, Christoph, 2020. "Corona politics: The cost of mismanaging pandemics," Kiel Working Papers 2165, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. George Ward, 2015. "Is Happiness a Predictor of Election Results?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1343, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Pedro C. Magalhães & Luís Aguiar-Conraria, 2017. "Procedural Fairness and Economic Voting," NIPE Working Papers 07/2017, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Jonathon M. Clegg, 2016. "Perception vs Reality: How Does The British Electorate Evaluate Economic Performance of Incumbent Governments In The Post War Period?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _143, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    10. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, "undated". "Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle," Discussion Papers 11/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Arndt Leininger, 2019. "Economic Voting in Direct Democracy: A Case Study of the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(2), pages 306-333.
    12. Maxime Menuet & Hugo Oriola & Patrick Villieu, 2021. "Do Conservative Central Bankers Weaken the Chances of Conservative Politicians?," Working Papers hal-03479411, HAL.
    13. Ruth Dassonneville & Michael S. Lewis-Beck, 2018. "Growth, Inequality, and Party Support: Valence and Positional Economic Voting," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1803, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    14. E Goulas & C Kallandranis & A Zervoyianni, 2019. "Voting Behaviour and the Economy: Evidence from Greece," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 24(1), pages 35-58, March.
    15. Rosa C. Hayes & Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2015. "Attribution Error In Economic Voting: Evidence From Trade Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 258-275, January.
    16. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    17. Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2013. "Voting functions in the EU-15," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 411-428, December.
    18. Antoine Auberger, 2020. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981- 2017)," Working Papers hal-02501677, HAL.
    19. Sedef Sen & Murat Donduran, 2017. "Does stock market performance affect the government satisfaction rating in the UK?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 999-1009, November.
    20. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:189:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-020-00856-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.