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How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?

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  • Robert Edelstein
  • Daniel Quan

Abstract

This paper examines and clarifies several related issues about real estate return indexes. Specifically, even if real estate valuation smoothing exists at the individual property level, such errors may offset in the aggregate. Using data from commercial property appraisals and corresponding transactions, appraisal smoothing errors engender an underestimation of both the first and second moments for real estate returns. After correcting for these “underestimations,” real estate mean returns and the variance appear to be quite similar to those of stocks. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:32:y:2006:i:1:p:41-60
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-005-5177-9
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    5. Jéssica Fernanda Castaño Lavado. & Miguel Ángel Morales Mosquera, 2015. "Revisión Metodológica de Índices de Precios de la Vivienda," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 81, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. McKenzie, Michael & Satchell, Stephen & Wongwachara, Warapong, 2014. "Converting true returns into reported returns: A general theory of linear smoothing and anti-smoothing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 215-229.
    7. Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme & Fabrice Barthélémy & Donald Keenan, 2015. "Cornish-Fisher Expansion for Commercial Real Estate Value at Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 439-464, May.
    8. Jéssica Fernanda Castaño Lavado & Miguel Ángel Morales Mosquera, 2015. "Revisión Metodológica de Índices de Precios de la Vivienda," Borradores de Economia 13317, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Stein, Michael, 2013. "German Real Estate Funds – Changes in Return Distributions and Portfolio Favourability," Ruhr Economic Papers 454, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    11. Alain Chaney & Martin Hoesli, 2015. "Transaction-Based and Appraisal-Based Capitalization Rate Determinants," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 1-43.
    12. Nafeesa Yunus, 2009. "Increasing Convergence Between U.S. and International Securitized Property Markets: Evidence Based on Cointegration Tests," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 383-411, September.
    13. Devaney, Steven & Xiao, Qin, 2017. "Cyclical co-movements of private real estate, public real estate and equity markets: A cross-continental spectrum," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 132-151.
    14. Pierre-Arnaud Drouhin & Arnaud Simon & Yasmine Essafi, 2016. "Forward Curve Risk Factors Analysis in the UK Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 494-526, November.
    15. Daniel Melser & Adrian D. Lee, 2014. "Estimating the Excess Returns to Housing at a Disaggregated Level: An Application to Sydney 2003–2011," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 756-790, September.
    16. Christian Weistroffer & Steffen Sebastian, 2015. "The German Open-End Fund Crisis – A Valuation Problem?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 517-548, May.
    17. Andrey Pavlov & Eva Steiner & Susan Wachter, 2018. "The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 210-250, March.
    18. Neil Crosby, 2007. "German Open Ended Funds: Was there a Valuation Problem?," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2007-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    19. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Yong-ki Lee, 2014. "The Dynamics of Appraisal Smoothing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 497-529, June.
    20. Michael Stein, 2013. "German Real Estate Funds – Changes in Return Distributions and Portfolio Favourability," Ruhr Economic Papers 0454, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    21. Drouhin, Pierre-Arnaud, 2012. "Caractéristiques statistiques et dynamique de prix des produits dérivés immobiliers," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/10918 edited by Batsch, Laurent.
    22. Jose Torres-Pruñonosa & Pablo García-Estévez & Camilo Prado-Román, 2021. "Artificial Neural Network, Quantile and Semi-Log Regression Modelling of Mass Appraisal in Housing," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-16, April.
    23. Andreas Gohs, 2017. "Correction Procedures for Appraisal-Based Real Estate Indices," ERES eres2017_274, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    24. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2012. "Unit Roots and Structural Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 757-776, March.

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