IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ipf/psejou/v46y2022i2p261-296.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring fiscal guidance transparency

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Columbano

    (IE University, Segovia, Spain)

Abstract

The public disclosure of medium-term fiscal plans - „fiscal guidance“ - represents an increasingly important, yet understudied element of fiscal transparency frameworks. This article introduces a dataset that contains a large set of forecasts on fiscal and economic items issued by all European Union governments over the period 2001-2018. These forecasts are used to build an index of fiscal guidance transparency and to explore its main characteristics and correlates. The analysis reveals that governments are more transparent in their guidance on fiscal flows and macroeconomic aggregates than on liabilities, assets, and exogenous assumptions. In addition, transparency declines in the forecast horizon and in the strength of the governing coalition. Collectively, the results suggest that fiscal guidance transparency may be a sensitive area of policymaking that deserves scholarly attention. Possible uses of the measure of fiscal guidance transparency in research are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Columbano, 2022. "Measuring fiscal guidance transparency," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 261-296.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:46:y:2022:i:2:p:261-296
    DOI: 10.3326/pse.46.2.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pse-journal.hr/upload/files/pse/2022/2/4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3326/pse.46.2.4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
    2. de Renzio, Paolo & Wehner, Joachim, 2017. "The impacts of fiscal openness," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 82521, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Elif Arbatli & Julio Escolano, 2015. "Fiscal Transparency, Fiscal Performance and Credit Ratings," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 36, pages 237-270, June.
    4. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Good, bad or ugly? On the effects of fiscal rules with creative accounting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 377-394, January.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(2), pages 247-272, June.
    6. Layna Mosley & Victoria Paniagua & Erik Wibbels, 2020. "Moving markets? Government bond investors and microeconomic policy changes," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 197-249, July.
    7. Fujiwara, Ippei & Waki, Yuichiro, 2020. "Fiscal forward guidance: A case for selective transparency," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 236-248.
    8. Lorenzo Cicatiello & Elina Simone & Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta, 2017. "Political determinants of fiscal transparency: a panel data empirical investigation," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 315-336, November.
    9. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    10. Alt, James E. & Lowry, Robert C., 1994. "Divided Government, Fiscal Institutions, and Budget Deficits: Evidence from the States," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 811-828, December.
    11. Oecd, 2002. "OECD Best Practices for Budget Transparency," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 1(3), pages 7-14.
    12. Alt, James E. & Lassen, David Dreyer, 2006. "Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1403-1439, August.
    13. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    14. Williams, Andrew, 2015. "A global index of information transparency and accountability," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 804-824.
    15. Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2023. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 472-492, June.
    16. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    17. Christopher Pollitt & Peter Hupe, 2011. "Talking About Government," Public Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 641-658, June.
    18. Lasse Aaskoven, 2016. "Fiscal Transparency, Elections and Public Employment: Evidence from the OECD," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 317-341, November.
    19. Andersen, Asger Lau & Lassen, David Dreyer & Nielsen, Lasse Holbøll Westh, 2014. "The impact of late budgets on state government borrowing costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 27-35.
    20. Rachel F Wang & Mr. Timothy C Irwin & Lewis K Murara, 2015. "Trends in Fiscal Transparency: Evidence from a New Database of the Coverage of Fiscal Reporting," IMF Working Papers 2015/188, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Wehner, Joachim & de Renzio, Paolo, 2013. "Citizens, Legislators, and Executive Disclosure: The Political Determinants of Fiscal Transparency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 96-108.
    22. Paolo de Renzio & Joachim Wehner, 2017. "The Impacts of Fiscal Openness," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 185-210.
    23. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Tirole, Jean, 1992. "Should governments commit?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 345-353, April.
    24. Mr. George Kopits & Mr. J. D. Craig, 1998. "Transparency in Government Operations," IMF Occasional Papers 1998/001, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Rachel Glennerster & Yongseok Shin, 2008. "Does Transparency Pay?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 183-209, April.
    26. Hollyer, James R. & Rosendorff, B. Peter & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2014. "Measuring Transparency," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 413-434.
    27. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    28. Berliner, Daniel & Bagozzi, Benjamin E. & Palmer-Rubin, Brian, 2018. "What information do citizens want? Evidence from one million information requests in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 222-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cicatiello, Lorenzo & De Simone, Elina & Ercolano, Salvatore & Gaeta, Giuseppe Lucio, 2021. "Assessing the impact of fiscal transparency on FDI inflows," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Nada Azmy ElBerry & Stijn Goeminne, 2021. "Fiscal transparency, fiscal forecasting and budget credibility in developing countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 144-161, January.
    3. Lasse Aaskoven, 2016. "Fiscal Transparency, Elections and Public Employment: Evidence from the OECD," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 317-341, November.
    4. Lorenzo Cicatiello & Elina Simone & Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta, 2017. "Political determinants of fiscal transparency: a panel data empirical investigation," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 315-336, November.
    5. Qiuxia Yang, 2020. "Fiscal Transparency and Public Service Quality Association: Evidence from 12 Coastal Provinces and Cities of China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & da Cunha Lima, Luiza Leitão, 2018. "Effects of fiscal transparency on inflation and inflation expectations: Empirical evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-37.
    7. de Renzio, Paolo & Wehner, Joachim, 2017. "The impacts of fiscal openness," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 82521, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Emna Trabelsi, 2019. "Do independence and transparency matter for bank development? A new lookup on emerging and developing countries," Post-Print hal-02162780, HAL.
    9. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Bastos, Júlio Cesar Albuquerque & de Oliveira, Ana Jordânia, 2019. "Fiscal transparency, government effectiveness and government spending efficiency: Some international evidence based on panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 211-225.
    10. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Do fiscal rules need budget transparency to be effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Vítor Ribeiro Laufer Calafate, 2021. "Lack of fiscal transparency and economic growth expectations: an empirical assessment from a large emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2985-3027, December.
    12. Elif Arbatli & Julio Escolano, 2015. "Fiscal Transparency, Fiscal Performance and Credit Ratings," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 36, pages 237-270, June.
    13. Nam Kyu Kim, 2018. "Transparency and currency crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 394-422, November.
    14. Carmen, COMANICIU, 2016. "Some Coordinates Concerning The Fiscal Transparency From Romania," Management Strategies Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 31(1), pages 60-67.
    15. James E. Alt & David Dreyer Lassen & Shanna Rose, 2006. "The Causes of Fiscal Transparency: Evidence from the American States," EPRU Working Paper Series 06-02, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    16. De Simone Elina & Gaeta Giuseppe Lucio & Mourão Paulo Reis, 2017. "The Impact of Fiscal Transparency on Corruption: An Empirical Analysis Based on Longitudinal Data," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17, October.
    17. Huseyin Cicek & Suleyman Dikmen, 2021. "External Audit And Fiscal Transparency: An Empirical Analysis," Public administration issues, Higher School of Economics, issue 5, pages 7-26.
    18. Lobna M. Abdellatif & Mohamed Zaky & Mohamed Ramadan, 2019. "Transparency of law making and fiscal democracy in the Middle East," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(1), pages 49-77.
    19. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
    20. Pintea Mirela-Oana & Achim Sorin Adrian & Lacatus Viorel, 2013. "Transparency Of Local Budgets In The North-West Region Of Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 931-941, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal transparency; forecasts; guidance; Stability and Growth Pact; disclosure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipf:psejou:v:46:y:2022:i:2:p:261-296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martina Fabris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ijfffhr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.