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Causal effect of volume on stock returns and conditional volatility in developed and emerging market

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  • Manish Kumar
  • M. Thenmozhi

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic causal (linear as well as non-linear) relationship between trading volume and return and between volatility and returns. We have used the vector autoregression based Granger causality framework to examine the linear causality, while the non-linear causality have been investigated using bivariate noisy Macke-Glass model which has been used so far in only economic and commodity data sets. The results of linear and non-linear causality show that trading volume Granger does not cause returns and volatility and suggests that there is unidirectional causality from returns to volume and from volatility to volume. The results strongly support the noise trader model, partially support the sequential information model hypothesis, and contradict the efficient market hypothesis. The evidence that volume does not influence stock returns and volatility can be incorporated by market participants in their trading strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Manish Kumar & M. Thenmozhi, 2012. "Causal effect of volume on stock returns and conditional volatility in developed and emerging market," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 346-362.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:amerfa:v:2:y:2012:i:4:p:346-362
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Ferreira, 2020. "Dynamic long-range dependences in the Swiss stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1541-1573, April.
    2. Saafi Sami & Farhat Abdeljelil & Haj Mohamed Meriem Bel, 2015. "Testing the relationships between shadow economy and unemployment: empirical evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 585-608, December.
    3. Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Linsley, Philip, 2014. "New evidence about the profitability of small and large stocks and the role of volume obtained using Strongly Typed Genetic Programming," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 299-316.
    4. Ali Gulzar, 2020. "Financial Sector Reforms and its Impact on Economy of Pakistan," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Senarathne, Chamil W., . "The Information Flow Interpretation of Margin Debt Value Data: Evidence from New York Stock Exchange," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 26(1).
    6. Sami Saafi & Meriem Haj mohamed & Abdeljelil Farhat, 2015. "Is there a causal relationship between unemployment and informal economy in Tunisia: evidence from linear and non-linear Granger causality," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1191-1204.
    7. Sami Saafi & Meriem Bel Haj Mohamed & Abdeljelil Farhat, 2017. "Untangling the causal relationship between tax burden distribution and economic growth in 23 OECD countries: Fresh evidence from linear and non-linear Granger causality," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 265-301, December.

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