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Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Eiji Fujii

Abstract

The Renminbi (RMB) is evaluated using relative PPP, absolute PPP, and Balassa-Samuelson criteria. We find that some approaches imply substantial undervaluation of the RMB, while others imply little or none. Yet a few others indicate slight overvaluation. However, even when the estimated degrees of undervaluation are large, the gap between predicted and actual values is not always statistically significant. We also find that including measures of institutions, such as the absence of corruption, results in smaller estimates of RMB undervaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2005:x:18
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0509/paper-chinn.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
    2. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Yongxiang Bu, 2008. "China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 17-39, February.
    3. Moosa, Imad A., 2011. "“Undermining the Case for a Trade War between the U.S. and China” - Una critica all’ipotesi di una guerra commerciale tra Stati Uniti e Cina," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 365-388.
    4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Chapters, in: Koichi Hamada & Beate Reszat & Ulrich Volz (ed.), Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Ahn, Choong Y. & Lee, Young S. & Yang, Doo Y., 2007. "Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 314-330, April.
    6. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "On Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Is Emerging Asia Different?," Working Papers 2009-38, CEPII research center.
    7. Janet Ceglowski & Stephen Golub, 2007. "Just How Low are China's Labour Costs?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 597-617, April.
    8. DANNE, Christian & SCHNABL, Gunther, 2008. "A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
    9. Morris Goldstein, 2006. "Renminbi Controversies," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 26(2), pages 251-266, Spring/Su.
    10. Mr. Lamin Y Leigh & Mr. Steven V Dunaway & Ms. Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 2006/220, International Monetary Fund.

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